The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments have issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of 'Artificial Intelligence+Manufacturing'". By 2027, the key core technologies of artificial intelligence in China will achieve safe and reliable supply; Promote the coordinated development of smart chip software and hardware, and support breakthroughs in key core technologies such as high-end training chips, artificial intelligence servers, and intelligent computing cloud operating systems. Cultivate artificial intelligence terminals such as smartphones, computers, tablets, and smart homes, and create a benchmark production line for humanoid robots. Industry insiders believe that these industries are all areas of innovative application of organic silicon materials, which are expected to open up new incremental space in the industry.
Today's industry symposium will release a signal of "anti internal competition", with DMC showing a stable, medium to strong short-term trend. Market core dynamics: 1. Price fluctuations: The market quotation for silicone oil contracts has significantly increased by 500 yuan/ton, DMC has risen by 300 yuan, and the mainstream price is approaching the key point of 14000 yuan/ton. As of January 8th, the mainstream product pricing system presents a narrow oscillation pattern of "top and bottom": raw rubber 14500-15000 yuan/ton, 107 rubber 14000-14500 yuan/ton, domestic methyl silicone oil 15500-16300 yuan/ton. 2. Corporate behavior: Some individual companies in Zhejiang and Shandong regions have implemented the practice of closing down and not reporting, leading to an increase in market bullish sentiment. 3. Industry event: Today, multiple individual factories jointly held an industry emission reduction symposium. It is reported that the meeting focused on "anti internal competition", involving content such as controlling production capacity, managing price wars, and protecting technology patents.
Market depth analysis:
1) Market trend: DMC leads the rise again, the market has entered a critical stage: this round of adjustment in the organic silicon industry has entered a critical stage, and raw material prices are gradually touching the bottom range widely recognized by the market. The recent wave of price increases has swept through several major production enterprises. It is worth noting that the previous market trend was led by DMC contract prices, and the current situation has reappeared. The DMC contract price has once again become a market indicator, and some industry insiders have stated that "DMC may be back on track, observe for two days, and the trend of organic silicon will become clear. The performance of the spot market is relatively stable, with a slight rebound in shipment volume, providing fundamental support for price increases. This may suggest that there are greater forces supporting the stabilization of the silicone market.
2) Supply and cost analysis: From the supply side, the current industry presents the following characteristics: most individual factories are in a state of load reduction or maintenance, and overall supply is tight. Pre sale orders have generally increased, and manufacturers' mentality of stabilizing prices has strengthened. From the perspective of major production areas, the southwest region has stable production, while the Xinjiang region, which accounts for a relatively large proportion of production, has seen a slight decrease in production rate to about 60%. In terms of cost, although the prices of raw materials such as silicon coal and silica have fallen due to weak demand, industrial silicon manufacturers have not substantially eased their losses due to the simultaneous reduction of product quotations, which further strengthens the willingness of industrial silicon enterprises to raise prices.
3) Changes in demand and mentality: This week, there has been a significant replenishment of downstream inventory, which has driven the growth of orders from individual factories. The market mentality has shown a positive change: the factory has a clear intention to raise prices, as evidenced by the closure operation. The enthusiasm for downstream procurement has increased synchronously, and there has been a short-term improvement in the supply-demand relationship.
Industry Important Signal: From "Internal Competition" to "Anti Internal Competition": The industry symposium held today has released a clear signal. The meeting focused on the theme of "anti internal competition", with a particular emphasis on discussing: controlling production capacity: establishing an orderly mechanism for regulating production capacity; Managing price wars: curbing vicious competition and maintaining market order; Protecting technology patents: driving the industry from price competition to value competition. This is not a bad thing. The return of organic silicon prices to rationality precisely means that the industry is struggling but firmly walking on the path of reducing overcapacity and internal competition. The industry's self-regulation and willingness to collaborate have been strengthened, laying the foundation for medium - and long-term healthy development.
Market outlook: Overall, the market is expected to show a stable to strong trend in the short term. The main support comes from: 1. The contraction effect caused by supply side maintenance and load reduction; 2. The demand boost brought by downstream replenishment; 3. Strengthen the mentality of industry collaboration to stabilize prices; 4. Cost support under corporate losses. According to recent market research, about 70% of industry insiders believe that the short-term silicone market is likely to continue a narrow range of strong fluctuations.
Long term observation: Whether the industry can truly emerge from the "internal competition" depends on whether the consensus of this symposium can be translated into practical actions, as well as the recovery strength of downstream real demand. Returning to rationality in prices is the first step towards the healthy development of the industry, but sustained and healthy development still requires a balance between supply and demand and the persistence of industry self-discipline.