Entering Thursday, the actual controller will hold an important meeting tomorrow. How much will the first wave of price increases in 2026 increase? 300 or 500? Under the continuous promotion of emission reduction policies, the supply of DMC is gradually decreasing, driving the follow-up of new orders. In the short term, the inventory pressure of individual factories is generally controllable. If downstream demand can cooperate and follow up, centralized procurement can be initiated. With the recovery of market transactions, it may promote the temporary repair of the market, triggering a "good start" in 2026, and DMC will comprehensively soar to 14000 yuan/ton! In terms of demand, the terminal consumer market has not yet shown substantial improvement, and downstream enterprises generally hold a cautious attitude towards price increases, with weak willingness to chase prices. The market's wait-and-see sentiment is still quite evident. But with the gradual depletion of low-priced sources in the early stage, the demand for replenishment by some low position holding enterprises has increased, and their enthusiasm for purchasing has increased to a certain extent compared to the early stage, which has formed a certain bottom support for the market. Overall, the sustained recovery of the mid to long term market still depends on the implementation of emission reduction measures in the upstream and the winter storage efforts in the middle and downstream before the year. If the demand side can gradually release and the supply side continues to tighten, the market is expected to gradually move out of the consolidation pattern and show a moderate upward trend.
107 glue and silicone oil market: Based on the strong price of raw material DMC, 107 glue and silicone oil enterprises have also maintained stable operation after the holiday. Currently, the price of 107 glue is 14200-14500 yuan/ton, and the price of silicone oil is 15000-15800 yuan/ton. On the supply side: Due to the impact of emission reduction policies, some individual factories have adopted a reluctant sales strategy towards DMC, resulting in a continuous tight supply of raw materials. Therefore, most 107 rubber and silicone oil companies have been operating at a reduced load while producing according to orders to maintain profits, presenting a tight supply-demand balance and providing solid support for prices. On the demand side: After the concentrated price increase before the holiday, silicone adhesive companies are currently mainly focusing on withdrawing funds from inventory, and are more cautious about upstream procurement. However, with the recent release of a series of favorable policies for the real estate market, some downstream enterprises have strengthened their expectations for the future and have reserved some purchasing space, waiting for the appropriate time to replenish their inventory. Overall, with cost support and supply regulation, the prices of 107 glue and silicone oil are expected to remain firm. If downstream digestion accelerates and demand for replenishment is released, the market is expected to steadily rise. Foreign brand silicone oil market: With the strengthening of the domestic market and the reduction of silicone oil supply, the advantage of large quantity of foreign-funded enterprises has emerged, and shipments have improved to some extent. However, the follow-up speed of the demand side is slow, and under the contradiction of oversupply, there is still upward pressure on foreign silicone oil. Currently, the quotation of foreign silicone oil agents has slightly increased to 16200-16500 yuan/ton.
Cracking material silicone oil market: The price of new materials is stable, and cracking materials still form a price attraction for downstream due to their cost advantage, making the overall new order transactions optimistic. Currently, the price of cracking material silicone oil is 12500-13000 yuan/ton. However, the demand release from downstream silicone adhesive enterprises is limited, and inquiries are average, resulting in actual market transactions still being mainly driven by rigid demand, and there has not been a comprehensive recovery. In this situation, even if the cracking material enterprise that has been in long-term losses has turned to profitability, the enterprise still chooses the concession shipping model to accelerate shipments. In terms of waste silicone, due to sufficient inventory, recyclers generally handle rough edges, while silicon product companies accelerate the speed of rough edge processing to speed up inventory removal; In terms of shipment, although the cracking material market has improved, the bidding mode has not changed, and various cracking material enterprises have generally accepted orders. Therefore, the main focus is on purchasing raw materials at a lower price. The shipment of waste silicone gel still faces a low price dilemma. Currently, the raw material delivery price for cracking materials has been adjusted to 3300-3500 yuan/ton. After the holiday, due to the actual demand situation not meeting expectations, the supply of waste silicone gel is sufficient, and cracking material enterprises purchase as needed. It is expected that the market will continue to operate steadily in the short term.