Yesterday, there was a significant price fluctuation in the domestic silicone market, with the industry's core product DMC breaking through the key position of 12500 yuan/ton in a single day, driving the silicone concept sector to rise nearly 5% in a single day and attracting high market attention.
The direct cause of this price fluctuation stems from the industry's recent consensus on "anti internal competition". After the industry conference on November 12th, several mainstream individual enterprises simultaneously raised their DMC quotations and implemented limited order acceptance. It is worth noting that, with the continuous depletion of industry inventory and the support of pre-sale orders, some companies plan to jointly reduce production by 30%, indicating a significant increase in self-discipline on the supply side of the industry.
According to industry news, on November 18th, the actual controllers of each individual factory will meet again, and it is expected that specific measures to combat internal competition will be further refined to provide policy guarantees for sustained price increases.
From the perspective of industry fundamentals, this round of price increases has sustainable support. On the supply side, DMC prices have been at a historical low for nearly five years, and the industry has been in a loss for three consecutive years, accelerating the process of clearing production capacity. On the demand side, there is a structural growth trend, with the rapid development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy, photovoltaics, and artificial intelligence bringing new increments to the demand for organic silicon. At the same time, changes in overseas production capacity patterns have also created new market space for China's organic silicon exports.
Overall, driven by the strengthening of self-discipline on the supply side and continuous improvement on the demand side, the silicone industry is expected to embark on a new cycle of prosperity.
Great diving! A sharp drop of over 20%! The cross-linking agent market has risen and fallen, and the transformation of supply and demand patterns has triggered a deep adjustment. Since mid September, the silicone crosslinking agent market has entered a strong upward cycle, with a cumulative price increase of up to 30% -35% in the past two and a half months, breaking through the 19000 yuan/ton mark at one point, reflecting the tense supply and demand situation at that time.
However, the market experienced a critical turning point in November. The sustained high prices have significantly exceeded the cost bearing capacity of downstream silicone rubber enterprises, leading to a sharp decline in their purchasing willingness and a market state of "price but no market". This change has led to inventory pressure beginning to reverse propagate from downstream to the production end of crosslinking agents, causing the supply-demand balance to rapidly tilt towards the buyer's market and price support to collapse.
Data monitoring shows that as of November 14th, the market price of crosslinking agents has rapidly fallen to 14500 yuan/ton, with a sharp drop of more than 20% at its high point, almost giving up nearly half of the previous increase.
Market outlook: Market analysis generally believes that this round of decline is not a short-term consolidation. As the global silicone adhesive industry gradually enters the winter season of concentrated maintenance, its demand for crosslinking agents will further shrink. Against the backdrop of a lack of strong demand support, the crosslinking agent market is unlikely to change its weak trend in the short term and is expected to enter a stage of supply-demand rebalancing adjustment.