The global M&A market is showing a prosperous scene. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the actual transaction volume of mergers and acquisitions from July to September 2025 increased by 39% year-on-year, reaching $1.1031 trillion. This is the first time in four years that the transaction volume from July to September has exceeded the $1 trillion mark. The US economy is stable, and the Trump tariff issue, which was once seen as an uncertain factor, is tending to calm down. Business operations are shifting from conservative to aggressive. Among them, the total amount of transactions reached by American companies as acquirers reached $570.6 billion, a four-year high and accounting for half of the global M&A total. It is worth mentioning that the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China in October is about to be held, and the "Planning Suggestions" for the 15th Five Year Plan will be discussed at the meeting, which means that the rough outline of the plan for the organic silicon industry has basically emerged.
DMC has a good start, and the market is showing signs of an upward trend
Recently, the DMC market has had a good start, with multiple individual companies such as Hesheng, Xingfa, and Xin'an reporting gains. Industry analysis points out that inventory decline is an important factor, and the silicone market may open a new round of upward channels in the first week after the holiday. According to a message from Silicon Cloud Online, during the holiday period, the silicone market is in a state of "weak stability game", characterized by top costs and bottom demand. The individual factory adhered to the price bottom line and even tentatively reported an increase, successfully reversing the market's bearish expectations.
Proactively controlling quantity on the supply side to create expectations of tight supply
On the supply side, individual factories take the initiative to control quantity with the intention of boosting the market. Excluding two sudden accidents, the main individual plant units experienced a certain degree of load reduction in mid to late September, and some underwent pre holiday maintenance in advance, effectively alleviating inventory pressure and creating an expectation of tight supply for the post holiday market. According to relevant data, as of September 26th, DMC inventory days have decreased by about 5% month on month, at a moderate level, and there is currently no need to sell at low prices to survive.
Poor condition on the demand side, rational and restrained stocking
The performance on the demand side is not satisfactory. Downstream enterprises adhere to the cautious attitude of "cash is king" and follow the principle of "essential needs" in stocking up, mostly for short-term orders. As the main demand drivers, the room temperature adhesive and silicone adhesive markets continue to be sluggish, and there has been no significant improvement in the data of newly started and completed real estate projects. Although the demand for photovoltaic adhesives and silicon for silicon carbon anodes has maintained stable growth, their proportion is relatively small, making it difficult to fully offset the decline in traditional fields. The textile and daily chemical industry has been affected by macroeconomic consumption, and its performance has been relatively lackluster.
Stable cost support, facing certain upward pressure
The cost support is relatively stable, with scarce low-priced supply in the market, coupled with an increase in downstream users' stocking demand, resulting in an increased acceptance of prices. However, in September, the operating capacity in the north increased compared to August, and the production maintained a growth trend, with a slight weakness in subsequent upward movements.
The price trends of various products are differentiated, and the market rhythm varies
From the trend of product prices, DMC prices have remained stable with some increase within the past half month. The end of month orders have been well received, and the bottom support of prices has gradually strengthened. Some manufacturers have the intention to explore price increases. The 107 rubber market has been stable and fluctuating for several days, with abundant supply and decent orders. After the pre holiday stocking ends, the trading pace tends to be flat. The silicone oil market presents a situation of both cost support and weak demand, with actual transaction prices stabilizing but weakening, and fierce market competition. The price of raw rubber first fell and then rose, and there was resistance from downstream towards high prices. There was a lot of pressure on pre holiday transactions, and it ultimately closed steadily.
Post holiday market outlook: The direct confrontation between "weak reality" and "strong expectations"
Taking into account various factors, the factory production during the holiday period will maintain continuity, but some devices will control the quantity and reduce the load, and the market inventory accumulation rate will be within a controllable range. At the same time, downstream enterprises are expected to gradually transmit terminal orders (especially foreign trade orders and orders in the new energy sector) to the midstream production process after holiday inventory consumption, thereby driving a short-term rebound in market trading volume.
For the silicone market after the National Day holiday, it is essentially a direct confrontation between "weak reality" and "strong expectations". From the perspective of the time window, the first week after the holiday is a key period for the traditional "Silver October" market to rise, and bullish sentiment is expected to improve. There is a high probability that prices will "rise in the beginning and then stabilize", and the market may usher in a period of market recovery. However, there is still uncertainty in the market trend, and it is necessary to closely monitor the impact of factors such as changes in supply and demand, policy orientation, etc. in the future.