The global M&A market is showing a prosperous trend. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the actual transaction volume of mergers and acquisitions from July to September 2025 increased by 39% year-on-year, reaching $1.1031 trillion. This is the first time in four years that the transaction volume from July to September has exceeded the $1 trillion mark. Apart from the stable US economy, the Trump tariff issue, which was once an uncertain factor, is tending to calm down, and businesses are shifting from a conservative to an aggressive business posture. The total amount of transactions reached by American companies as acquirers reached $570.6 billion, a four-year high and accounting for half of the global M&A total. Industry analysis suggests that the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in October, and the "Planning Suggestions" for the 15th Five Year Plan will be discussed at the plenary session. This means that at this point, the rough outline of the plan for the organic silicon industry has been basically formed.
DMC had a good start, with multiple individual companies including Hesheng, Xingfa, and Xin'an reporting higher prices. Industry analysis suggests that inventory has decreased, and in the first week after the holiday, organic silicon may open a new round of upward trend. News from Silicon Cloud Online: As we enter the holiday season, the core keyword of the silicone market is "weak stability game", manifested as top cost and bottom demand. Individual factories adhere to the bottom line of prices, even tentatively reporting an increase, which once reversed the market's bearish expectations.
The supply side actively controls the quantity with the intention of boosting the market. Excluding two sudden accidents, the main individual plant units experienced a certain degree of load reduction in mid to late September, and some underwent pre holiday maintenance in advance, effectively alleviating inventory pressure and creating a tight supply expectation for the post holiday market. According to relevant data, as of September 26th, DMC inventory days have decreased by about 5% month on month, at a moderate level, and there is currently no need to sell at low prices to survive.
The quality of the demand side is insufficient, and the stocking is extremely rational. Downstream enterprises hold a cautious attitude of 'cash is king', and their inventory follows the principle of 'essential needs', mostly consisting of short-term orders. As the main demand drivers, room temperature adhesive and silicone adhesive have continued to perform poorly, and there has been no significant improvement in the data of new construction and completion areas in the real estate industry. The demand for photovoltaic adhesives and silicon for silicon carbon anodes has maintained stable growth, but the proportion is relatively small and cannot fully offset the decline in traditional fields. Textile and daily chemical products are affected by macroeconomic consumption and perform averagely.
The cost side support is stable, and there is a shortage of low-priced goods in the market. Coupled with the increased price acceptance of downstream users' stocking demand, the operating capacity in the north increased in September compared to August, and the output maintained an increase. The subsequent upward trend is weak.
The DMC price has remained stable with some increase within half a month, and the end of month order situation is still acceptable. The bottom support of the price is gradually strengthening, and some manufacturers have the willingness to explore price increases. The 107 rubber market has been stable and fluctuating in price for several days, with abundant supply and decent orders. Pre holiday stocking has come to an end, and the trading pace is becoming smoother. The cost support of silicone oil coexists with weak demand, and the actual transaction price is stable but weakening, resulting in fierce market competition. Raw rubber first fell and then rose, with downstream resistance to high prices and significant pre holiday trading pressure, ultimately leading to a stable closing.
Overall, during the holiday season, factory production will maintain continuity, but some devices will control the quantity and reduce the load, and the market inventory accumulation rate will be within a controllable range. At the same time, downstream enterprises are expected to gradually transmit terminal orders (especially foreign trade orders and orders in the new energy sector) to the midstream production process after holiday inventory consumption, thereby driving a short-term rebound in market trading volume.
For the silicone market after the National Day holiday, it is essentially a direct confrontation between "weak reality" and "strong expectations". From the perspective of the time window, the first week after the holiday is a key period for the traditional "Silver October" market to pull up prices. Bullish sentiment is expected to improve, and there is a high probability that prices will "rise first and then stabilize". The market may usher in a temporary market recovery.