Recently, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Vigorously Developing Digital Consumption and Co creating a Better Life in the Digital Age", which clearly proposes to vigorously develop digital product consumption as a key direction. The document points out that enterprises should be encouraged to strengthen research and development innovation, expand the effective supply of artificial intelligence terminal products, and fully unleash the consumption potential of new digital products such as artificial intelligence smartphones, artificial intelligence computers (AIPCs), intelligent robots, intelligent wearable devices, and desktop level 3D printing devices. At the same time, accelerate the technological research and development, as well as interconnectivity, of products such as smart home appliances, smart security, and video care systems. We will promote the pilot project of smart connected vehicle access and road access, support the cultivation of new consumer brands, and promote the innovative development of digital China-Chic and other brands. The core of this policy is to strengthen the innovation and application of artificial intelligence terminal products, covering AI smartphones AIPC、 Multiple cutting-edge fields such as robotics and AI glasses. According to analysis by multiple downstream giants, the extension of these high growth emerging industries will bring broad demand prospects to the organic silicon industry chain, and is expected to open up greater future growth space for it.
On Wednesday, the domestic organic silicon market saw strong support for raw materials, with prices stabilizing and trending upwards. Market sentiment gradually heated up amidst cost expectations and supply-demand competition. Analyze the current market from multiple dimensions as follows:
1) Significant support from the raw material side and rising cost expectations: Market attention is focused on changes in the supply of the main raw material, silicon metal. After October, as the southwest region gradually enters a dry season, the production of local silicon plants is expected to be limited, and there is an expectation of a downward adjustment in operating rates. Regional production cuts may lead to a downward trend in overall silicon metal production. The expected tightening of supply on the raw material side has provided strong support for the cost of organic silicon, becoming an important driving factor for the upward trend of market prices.
2) The increase and decrease in operating capacity of individual factories are interrelated, and the supply pressure is limited. From the supply side, the operation of equipment in each individual factory varies. Some enterprises have maintenance or load reduction plans, while others maintain high load operation. The overall industry operating rate is expected to slightly decline. Currently, most individual enterprises maintain a relatively smooth shipping rhythm by relying on the continuous delivery of pre-sale orders in the early stage, and the inventory level in the factory is generally low, with little inventory pressure. Therefore, production enterprises have a firm attitude towards pricing and a strong willingness to raise prices.
3) The product quotation is stable with some increase, and the focus of transactions has shifted upward: mainstream products such as DMC, silicone oil, 107 glue, etc. have seen a slight increase in quotation, and the actual transaction price has generally risen by 100-200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. Although each manufacturer implements flexible bargaining strategies based on their own order situation and customer structure, resulting in differences in actual transaction prices, the overall transaction center of the market has shown an upward trend. Downstream users still mainly purchase on demand, and replenishment operations are relatively cautious. Transactions are mostly concentrated at the mid to low levels of the quotation range, but the overall transaction atmosphere for new orders remains stable.
4) The transmission of price increases is gradually emerging, and market sentiment is turning positive: influenced by the expectation of upstream silicon metal price increases and tight supply from individual factories, the recent activity of inquiries in the raw material spot market has increased, and the willingness of buyers to stock up has been strengthened. The current price increase has gradually spread from the raw material end to the organic silicon finished product stage, and the market's bullish sentiment is rapidly accumulating. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will remain stable with a moderate to strong trend in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the actual production reduction scale of metal silicon and the follow-up situation of downstream terminal demand.