After individual factories made efforts to explore price increases, the middle and downstream markets have loosened, and some companies with pre holiday warehouse construction needs have stocked up to some extent, driving some individual factories to make up for the increase. At present, 4-5 units in Zhejiang, Shandong, and North China regions are experiencing sudden events and loss pressures, resulting in concentrated load reduction. At the same time, the DMC self use rate of each individual factory is also continuously increasing. Therefore, after several units reduce production, DMC spot supply to the outside world has been tight recently, and individual factories in Shandong have been receiving orders smoothly. Some manufacturers' DMC orders are scheduled until mid to late October. However, it is not easy for the upward trend to be transmitted downwards. Most middle and downstream enterprises just need to replenish their warehouses, and their willingness to chase after the rise and stock up is not strong. As of September 24th, the mainstream DMC quotation has remained stable at 10900-11500 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, the price of silicon metal 421 # remained at 9800-10300 yuan/ton, with high costs, providing some support for individual factories to raise prices. In terms of midstream and downstream stocking, due to the absence of the "Golden September" event, various enterprises have a negative expectation for the "Silver October" event. The pre holiday stocking volume is average, and it basically continues to be purchased for essential needs. It is expected that DMC will continue to operate steadily with medium to small price increases before the holiday.
107 rubber and silicone oil market: Raw material DMC is exploring an upward trend, while 107 rubber and silicone oil companies continue to suppress shipments from individual manufacturers, making it difficult to have the confidence to keep up. With poor shipments, there is also some resistance to the rising raw material prices. However, due to sudden equipment accidents and supply cuts in some individual manufacturers, prices have increased to stimulate downstream stocking. This week, the price of 107 glue is 11500-12000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of silicone oil is 13300-13800 yuan/ton. In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream silicone adhesive market has limited demand. Even if some companies have follow-up orders for replenishment, the sluggish trend of terminal demand cannot provide more favorable support to the market. In addition, the recent increase in crosslinking agent prices due to the tightening of raw material grade A has led to a rise in silicone adhesive costs and squeezed profit margins, resulting in low price purchases of 107 adhesive and silicone oil.
In terms of foreign brand silicone oil: Under the weak overall environment, the marginal improvement is limited, and some foreign brand silicone oil is also forced to trade price for quantity. Currently, the price of foreign brand silicone oil has been lowered to 14500-16200 yuan/ton, and some whole container trading prices have approached domestic silicone oil prices. Overall, DMC has experienced a slight increase in stock prices due to maintenance of multiple facilities, but individual factories have maintained low prices for silicone oil. At the same time, foreign silicone oil companies have also joined the competition, leading to increased operational pressure for small and medium-sized silicone oil enterprises and difficulty in keeping up with cost increases. It is expected that the 107 rubber and silicone oil markets will continue to operate weakly and steadily in the short term.
Cracking material silicone oil market: Currently, cracking material enterprises are still deeply trapped in a loss making pattern. With the intensification of new material bidding, the bidding advantage of cracking material enterprises is becoming increasingly disadvantaged. Downstream orders are mostly flowing towards new materials, so cracking material enterprises tend to accept orders more frequently and have limited room for price adjustment. At the same time, there is no advantage in cracking materials in Southeast Asia, and some enterprises have been in a state of shutdown. This week, the price of cracking material silicone oil is 11300~11800 yuan/ton. In terms of waste silicone, since the price fell to the bottom, silicone product companies have also been passive in handling waste silicone, and waste silicone recyclers have difficulty operating in the long-term sluggish market, so the collection of materials is also determined according to customer demand. Cracking material enterprises have average shipments, and under the loss of profits, most cracking material factories have low operating rates, with limited demand for burrs. Currently, the delivery price of cracking material burrs is between 3200-3300 yuan/ton. In the short term, without substantial recovery in demand, there is a stalemate between cracking material companies and waste silica gel recyclers, and the market continues to operate weakly.
On the demand side: This year's so-called "golden September and silver October" is actually clear to everyone. Even if there is a wave of market trend during the peak season, it is estimated to be a narrow fluctuation. The pressure for silicone adhesive companies to reshuffle is also continuously increasing, and the real estate downturn has directly led to the collapse of the traditional high demand for building sealants. At present, silicone adhesive enterprises are basically continuing to produce according to the production schedule, with a bottom line operation, and limited pre holiday stocking layout. Photovoltaic adhesive market: The industry's "anti internal competition" governance continues to deepen, and although module prices have rebounded, production has decreased, resulting in a decline in demand for photovoltaic adhesive. At the same time, module companies are controlling costs through centralized procurement, long-term price locking, and other methods, leading to more intense competition in the stock of photovoltaic adhesive industry.
Overall, competition among silicone adhesive companies is becoming increasingly fierce, with some companies actively shifting towards the fields of electronic potting adhesives and industrial adhesives. The demand side is cautious about bullish sentiment before the holiday, adopting a conservative strategy for stocking up on 107 glue and silicone oil, with a focus on essential demand.