Recently, I'm afraid Europeans have a hard time, because it may be an expensive and cold winter for them. Recently, global commodity trading giant Trafigura group warned that if the cold weather lasts for a long time this winter, Europe will face the risk of power failure.


The main reasons for the European energy crisis are as follows:


Over the past year, global coal and natural gas prices have soared, and natural gas prices in Europe have continued to rise for more than ten months. If the epidemic is not as violent as last year, the ensuing energy crisis has clouded Europe again.


First of all, different from China's complete energy system and abundant coal resources, clean energy accounts for a higher proportion in Europe's energy composition system, and natural gas is widely used. In particular, Germany has high and high requirements for the energy system of the whole country on the premise of announcing the complete cessation of nuclear power in 2022, the closure of all coal power in 2038 and the abandonment of natural gas before 2050.


Although the idea is good, the reality is that electricity prices in European countries have soared at a time when gas prices have doubled several times due to excessive dependence on imported natural gas and gradual depletion of inventories.


Secondly, since this year, affected by the climate, the wind power in Europe is not as good as that in previous years, the wind power supply is insufficient, and the natural gas is excessively dependent on the Russian supply. About half of the natural gas in the EU is provided by Russia. However, if the transmission pipeline is slightly twisted by Russia, Europe will be more uncomfortable this winter.


The main reasons for the power shortage in many places in China some time ago are as follows:


Three reasons——


The high price of coal leads to the shortage of thermal power generation. Coupled with the sudden drop of unstable wind power generation, there is a large power gap. In September, the North China power grid is also very tight and can not support the Northeast power grid as in previous months. It can only reduce the input from the Northeast power grid, and the power consumption in the Northeast continues to rise. In addition, under the background of large-scale and orderly power consumption, The superposition of multiple factors leads to the short-term power shortage in Northeast China, which has not been a large power consumption province or a power shortage province for many years.


In 2020, thermal power still accounted for 71.19% of all kinds of power generation in China, which has decreased by about 5% compared with 76% in previous years.


Wind power generation accounts for 5.59% and photovoltaic power generation accounts for 1.92%. The proportion of these two unstable power generation is not too high.


Even for hydropower generation, there are high water period and low water period, and there is periodicity.


Therefore, after the shortage of power resources in the country, many people have always said that they should speed up the proportion of new energy power generation as soon as they see the sharp rise in coal prices, resulting in a significant increase in the cost of thermal power generation, which leads to the shortage of power resources.


However, it is not a safe policy to blindly increase the proportion of unstable new energy power generation without considering the stability of the power grid.


When the proportion of wind power is only 5.59%, such power grid accidents will occur due to the sudden reduction of wind power.


Not to mention those European countries with developed offshore wind power and a higher proportion of wind power, this winter is doomed to be difficult.


If the proportion in China is not 5%, but 15% or even higher like Europe, it is bound to put forward higher requirements for the stability of the power grid.


Therefore, if we do not switch off power rationing, but expand low-end production capacity without restraint, we will not only consume a lot of valuable power resources, but also easily affect our economic stability under the impact of the global energy crisis, and it is also easy to pay for US inflation.


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