Organic Silicon Market: The Fluctuating Game of Closing and Boosting Prices
Hits: 227
img
Recently, the futures market has undergone a sudden change, with related varieties plummeting by over 700 points! In the field of organic silicon products such as DMC, raw rubber, and 107 rubber, after a wave of rising prices, individual factories have once again closed down without reporting, and the trend of accumulating momentum has attracted widespread market attention. The wait-and-see sentiment of middle and downstream enterprises has also become increasingly strong.
At the end of July, individual factories had a strong willingness to raise prices. With sufficient pre-sale orders, the timing is perfect for rebounding shipments. Affected by upstream lockdowns, some midstream and downstream companies have chosen to cooperate with price hikes for shipments, but more companies are adopting a cautious and wait-and-see attitude. After all, no matter how much the price rises, if the demand side does not buy it, the increase will be difficult for the market to digest smoothly. Currently, under the call for "anti involution", the silicone market seems to be heading towards a full rebound, but the restraining effect of downstream demand is obvious, and the increase is difficult to rapidly expand. Individual factories are expected to consider factors such as cost and demand in their operations, and the organic silicon market is likely to show a strong and volatile trend this week.
On the cost side, the supply and demand situation is complex. In terms of supply, the operating rate in the north is basically stable, while the operating rate in the southwest region has slightly increased, and the production capacity continues to grow, which has a certain drag on prices. On the demand side, polycrystalline silicon may experience fluctuations in the market due to the interweaving of strong expectations and weak reality; The fundamentals of organosilicon have not yet reversed, and the demand for industrial silicon is limited. Recently, the "anti involution" sentiment has driven industrial silicon prices to soar, but with the continuous increase of supply side production capacity, the market rebound sentiment has diverged, and spot prices have fallen from high levels. Yesterday, the closing price of the main futures contract Si2509 fell to 8915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 775 yuan, returning to the 8000+era. The price of 421 # metal silicon was 9550-10400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. In the future, although macro positive factors still exist, negative demand feedback continues to constrain prices, and the industrial silicon market is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term.
In terms of operating rate, with the rising rebound atmosphere in the field, the enthusiasm for downstream replenishment has increased, the willingness of individual factories to release inventory has strengthened, and some units have resumed production, resulting in an overall increase in operating rate. However, individual factories still have concerns about excess inventory and cannot rule out the possibility of partial device load reduction operation in the future, but it is expected that the overall operating rate will still remain above 70%. In this market game, all parties are waiting for clearer signals from the demand side to determine the future market direction.