Sealed again! After a wave of upward trend, individual factories have once again closed down and refused to report, and the trend of accumulating momentum to boost prices has made the wait-and-see attitude of middle and downstream enterprises even stronger. Specifically, the willingness of individual factories to raise prices remained strong at the end of July, and with sufficient pre-sale orders, the rebound in shipments at this time coincided with the situation. Therefore, against the backdrop of upstream lockdowns, some midstream and downstream enterprises have also cooperated to increase prices and ship, but more enterprises are still cautious and watching, after all, no matter how the price rises, if the demand side does not cooperate, the increase will be difficult to be smoothly digested by the market. Overall, under the call for "anti involution", the silicone market is currently on a path towards a full rebound, but the increase may be difficult to rapidly expand due to downstream demand constraints. Individual factories may consider factors such as cost and demand when conducting operations, and it is expected that the silicone market will show a strong and volatile trend this week.
Cost side: On the supply side, the operating rate in the north is basically stable, while the operating rate in the southwest region is slightly stronger. The continuous growth of production capacity has dragged down prices. On the demand side, under strong expectations and weak reality, the polysilicon market may still experience fluctuations; The fundamentals of organosilicon have not yet reversed, and the demand for industrial silicon is limited. Looking at it now, the "anti involution" sentiment has led to a sharp rise in industrial silicon prices. However, with the continuous strengthening of supply side production capacity, market rebound sentiment has diverged, and spot prices have fallen from high levels. Yesterday, the closing price of the main futures contract Si2509 was 8915 yuan/ton, down 775 yuan, returning to the 8000+era. The price of 421 # metal silicon was 9550-10400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. In the future, the macro positive impact still exists, but negative demand feedback remains, which constrains prices. It is expected that the industrial silicon market will experience fluctuations and adjustments in the short term. In terms of operating rate: With the further expansion of the rebound atmosphere in the field, the enthusiasm for downstream replenishment has increased, and the willingness of individual factories to release inventory is relatively high. Some units have resumed production, and the overall operating rate has increased. However, individual factories still have concerns about excess inventory, and it is not ruled out that some units will operate with reduced load in the future. It is expected that the overall operating rate will still be above 70%.