As the night of July begins to grow, the stars are struggling fiercely. Today marks the beginning of the July chapter, and the organic silicon market will embark on a new round of competition. Looking back at the first half of the year, the silicone market showed a trend of first rising and then falling! Specifically, the first quarter is currently in the stage of terminal recovery, and there are many positive signals released from the macro level. Several downstream enterprises have made stock layouts, especially single factories have reached a production reduction alliance and worked together to raise prices. At the end of March, the average DMC price reached its highest point of 14500 yuan/ton. However, as we enter the second quarter, the inventory in the middle and lower reaches is sufficient, and the driving force for price increases is gradually weakening. In early April, we faced another epic tariff war, which greatly affected terminal demand. The pressure on upstream inventory accumulation suddenly increased, and the supply-demand imbalance led to the breakdown of the production reduction alliance. Individual factories returned to bidding for orders, and since April, the market has been spiraling downwards. In May, DMC fell to 11500-12000 yuan/ton, and the middle and lower reaches believe that it is infinitely close to the bottom, and they are laying out to buy at the bottom. Unexpectedly, after the collapse of the production reduction alliance, the operating rates of individual enterprises continued to rise in order to reduce costs, while industrial silicon also continued to break new lows. Supported by both cost and supply, the shocking low prices in the industry poured down in June. From the data of the first half of the year, from January to June, the average price of DMC was 13001 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 11.41%. The highest price was 14800 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 10200 yuan/ton. The maximum fluctuation range of the price was 4600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.9%. From the driving factors of market trends, overcapacity is the dominant factor, compounded by the intertwined effects of cost and demand setbacks.
As the saying goes, 'Five poor, six desperate, seven turning over.' After experiencing a continuous decline in June, the silicone market in July may not be as pessimistic. Positive factors for industrial silicon are gradually accumulating. Although it may not completely turn over, it is also difficult to reproduce the sharp decline. Looking at July, with the news of maintenance of individual factories in Shandong, the market stability has increased. Yesterday, the industrial silicon market was hit by sudden production cuts by large factories in Xinjiang, and futures were close to the daily limit up. 421 spot metal silicon also rebounded by 100%! The silicone market in July is expected to show a narrow upward trend