DMC has risen again! Hesheng: The organic silicon recovery cycle has begun! Wacker: Special Organic Silicon Expansion Project Completed!
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According to official media reports, the government recently proposed to investigate and punish unfair competition and price violations in accordance with the law. Strengthen the supervision and law enforcement of key industries and fields, carry out centralized rectification actions in different fields, increase efforts to crack down on counterfeiting and shoddy products, severely crack down on market chaos such as malicious price comparisons, false advertising, and low price dumping, investigate and punish a number of key cases in accordance with the law, expose a number of typical cases, severely punish a number of illegal and irregular behaviors, and create a good competitive ecology. The author believes that for organic silicon companies trapped in it, it is wise to stop and break out of the "internal competition" and seek competitiveness through innovation.
Thursday DMC Market News: Partial increase of 100 yuan, with downward pressure hidden under the main stable pattern. The spot market overall maintains stable operation, with the mainstream price range of 11300-12700 yuan/ton. Market driving factor analysis: 1) Cost drag: Industrial silicon prices remain low, coupled with weak terminal demand, leading to passive market fluctuations in enterprise orders and poor cost transmission; 2) Cautious sentiment dominant: After long-term loss making shipments, the difficulty of controlling profits for enterprises increases, and both imports and exports maintain a cautious attitude, resulting in low market transaction activity; 3) Supply pressure remains unresolved: Although some individual factories have tentatively raised prices, there is still a risk of oversupply in the industry as a whole. Some companies continue to implement the "price for quantity" strategy and are simultaneously reducing production for maintenance. Outlook for the future: Under the current weak supply-demand pattern, the market lacks rebound momentum, coupled with the accumulation of bearish sentiment, DMC prices still face downside risks. It is expected that the organic silicon market will continue to maintain a stable trend, but caution should be taken against the hidden downward operation under the dual pressure of cost and demand. Suggest paying attention to the price trend of industrial silicon and the trend of terminal replenishment.
Hesheng: The organic silicon recovery cycle has begun! Silicon Cloud Online News: Recently, there have been frequent macro positive developments, such as substantial progress in tariff relief, the launch of cross-border export enterprises' "rush shipment" and foreign-funded enterprises' replenishment cycle, the improvement of the efficiency of industrial chain source circulation, and the improvement of order operation activity, injecting upward momentum into the silicone market and forming price support.
As of May 20th, the spot price of 421 # industrial silicon has fallen by 100 yuan/ton for two consecutive days, breaking through a historical low. Approaching the flood season, Sichuan is expected to return to full production by the end of the month, while Yunnan will fully open before the end of June. The prices of methanol and other auxiliary materials will also decline, and the comprehensive cost effect of industrial silicon will weaken. The expected operating rate in late May is below 60%. The facilities in the northwest region will be shut down for maintenance, and the facilities in the northwest region will enter a periodic shutdown and maintenance phase. The 600000 ton production capacity in Hubei will maintain a "start one stop two" operation mode. Although the Zhangjiagang facility has been restarted, the increase is limited, and the supply side will continue to experience a trend of load reduction and contraction. Middle and downstream enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market, with slow destocking in the upstream, continuous accumulation in the midstream, and gradual consumption at the end. The price for quantity action is currently unable to fully stimulate demand, and the market is entering a "destocking replenishment" tug of war stage, waiting for confirmation of substantial demand turning points.
In terms of products, the DMC market transaction price has stopped falling and stabilized, with some companies raising their prices by around 200 yuan/ton in the open market. The price of 107 glue remains at 12500-13500 yuan/ton, and the market is mainly focused on destocking, with a slight increase in trading volume. It is expected to maintain stable operation in the short term. Due to the pressure on terminal shipments, the inventory cycle of silicone adhesive companies is generally short, and some factories in southern China have entered the summer production reduction mode ahead of schedule, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude towards procurement. The trading atmosphere of silicone oil is as expected calm, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to maintain stability. However, the printing and dyeing textile market has entered the off-season, and transactions are mainly small and short orders. It is expected to operate weakly and fluctuate this week. Raw rubber rebounded against the trend, with transaction prices generally rising by 200-300 yuan/ton. The trading market has improved, with strong support for upward logic, and the possibility of short-term decline is relatively weak. Rubber mixing: The quotation for conventional hardness rubber mixing has not fluctuated yet, but the order volume before this year's 618 is slightly slower than in previous years, and the market competition is severe. Downstream enterprises have only made a small amount of replenishment. In summary, the silicone market is currently at a critical juncture in the game between macro positive expectations and industry reality. With the further release of macro policy dividends and the adjustment of inventory cycles in the industrial chain, the market fundamentals are expected to gradually improve this week.