Recently, domestic and international markets are undergoing complex and drastic changes due to trade frictions and internal competition within the industry.
In the toy industry, the US tariff policy has triggered a chain reaction. Several domestic silicone adult toy manufacturers updated their US order quotes on May 6th, with an increase of 40-60%, just to offset the impact of tariffs provoked by Trump. American toy company Mattel has also been deeply affected, with tariffs expected to result in a loss of $270 million this year. On the 5th, its CEO called for an end to tariffs on toy products. In fact, the prices of some Mattel toys have increased, with some Barbie dolls in the United States rising by 42.9% in just one week in mid April. According to data from the Toy Association of America, 80% of all toys sold in the United States are made in China, and tariff policies have had a serious impact on the US toy industry.
The silicone market is also fluctuating. In April, although the Caixin China Manufacturing and Service PMI remained above the boom bust line, the production and operation expectations index fell to a low level due to external trade factors. There have been abnormal operations in the silicone market, with both prices and demand falling. However, major companies in the monomer industry have ended their production restrictions and price protection measures ahead of schedule. This is due to the internal "different adjustments" within the monomer factories, where price for quantity is prevalent, leading to intense price wars and "lock-in games". At this time, international trade frictions are escalating, the US economy is shrinking, and exports are hindered, exacerbating market pressure. The price of organic silicon DMC has plummeted from the highest of 60000+yuan/ton in 2021 to the current range of 11500-12500 yuan/ton, with a single month drop of over 20% in April.
The domestic raw rubber market also continued to stabilize in April, but was under pressure from the continuous decline in DMC prices. As of May 6th, the mainstream price of raw rubber has fallen to 12800-13500 yuan/ton, showing a fluctuating trend of "first suppressing, then stabilizing, and then bottoming out" during the month. At the end of the month, local prices slightly rebounded due to the rebound of DMC. There were significant market changes in April: at the beginning of the month, market demand was weak, and raw rubber companies experienced a decline in shipments but sluggish transactions; In the second half of the year, the price adjustment of leading rubber enterprises triggered centralized stocking, but subsequent follow-up showed a decline in the number of orders received by individual factories; The low price shock at the end of the month triggered a demand for bargain hunting, forming the second wave of small-scale procurement peak.
Now, with the bottoming out and rebound of DMC prices, some rubber companies have regained their previous oversold profit margins, and their quotes have risen by more than 200-300 yuan/ton. Currently, raw rubber enterprises mainly focus on executing pre holiday orders, easing short-term shipping pressure. The industry expects the price of raw rubber to maintain a narrow adjustment this week, and the subsequent trend will closely follow the fluctuations of DMC and downstream procurement rhythm. Under the dual influence of trade frictions and industry competition, various industries are struggling to explore new balances and opportunities.