Shocked! Rising by over 40%! Several domestic silicone adult toy manufacturers have announced that they have updated their US order quotes on May 6th, with price increases ranging from 40-60%, in order to offset the impact of tariffs initiated by US President Trump. According to local media reports on May 5th, Barbie doll manufacturer Mattel Toys stated in its earnings report that the company will increase the prices of products sold in the United States "if necessary" to offset the cost increase caused by tariff policies. Mattel stated that tariffs will result in a loss of $270 million for the company this year. On the 5th, Inoue Krez, CEO of Mattel, called for an end to tariffs on toy products. In fact, the prices of toys from some Mattel companies have already increased. According to an analysis by Telsey Consulting Group, in mid April, the prices of some Barbie dolls sold in the United States had risen by 42.9% within a week. The American Toy Association states that 80% of all toys sold in the United States are made in China. The recent tariff policies of the US government have had a serious impact on the toy industry in the United States.
In April, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI recorded 50.4 and the Caixin China Service PMI recorded 50.7, both remaining above the boom bust line. Due to external trade factors, the production and operation expectations index fell to a low level. In April, there were abnormal operations in the silicone market: despite a decrease in both prices and demand, major companies in the industry ended their production restrictions and price protection measures ahead of schedule, causing industry shock. Behind this is actually a phenomenon of "different adjustments" within individual factories and internally, where price for quantity is prevalent. Industry insiders believe that some manufacturers have privately lowered prices to compete for orders from core customers, leading leading leading companies to simply open up production capacity and let "organic silicon prices fall for a while". At that time, it will be up to whoever cannot withstand it first and surrender first, attempting to use price wars to force their opponents to retreat. Simply put, this is a 'price war' or 'lock up game' between individual factories and internal players. At this time, the escalation of international trade frictions coupled with the contraction of the US economy and the obstruction of exports have intensified market pressure. The price of organic silicon DMC has plummeted from a peak of over 60000 yuan/ton in 2021 to the current range of 11500-12500 yuan/ton, with a drop of over 20% in April alone. Most manufacturers in the industry chain are testing each other's bottom line through this "throat cutting" competition.
After the holiday, the domestic raw rubber market continued to stabilize, dragged down by the continuous decline in DMC prices, and the domestic raw rubber market was under pressure to decline in April. As of May 6th, the mainstream price of raw rubber has fallen to 12800-13500 yuan/ton, showing a fluctuating trend of "first suppressing, then stabilizing, and then bottoming out" during the month. At the end of the month, local prices slightly rebounded due to the rebound of DMC. There are three main changes in the market in April: 1 At the beginning of the month, there was a dark drop in shipments and sluggish transactions: After the holiday, market demand was weak, and raw rubber companies launched a dark drop promotion due to insufficient orders, but prices were still higher than the psychological expectations of rubber compound manufacturers, resulting in light market trading. 2. In the middle and late stages of the price war, centralized stocking was triggered: leading rubber companies took the lead in lowering prices to the expected bottom price of the rubber mixing plant, stimulating A-class customers to complete monthly three car rigid purchases, and some large order customers (10-20 cars) received additional discounts. This round of price adjustment has driven a temporary stocking wave, but the subsequent follow-up single factories have significantly declined in order volume due to the narrowing of bargaining space.   3.  The low price shock at the end of the month triggered a demand for bargain hunting: At the end of the month, raw rubber companies offered discounts again to alleviate inventory pressure, and rubber mixing factories bought new stocks at low prices. Some manufacturers added bulk orders through the "volume for price" strategy, forming the second wave of small-scale procurement peak.   
With the bottoming out and rebound of DMC prices, some rubber companies have regained the profit margin from the previous oversold period, and their quotations have risen by more than 200-300 yuan/ton. At present, raw rubber enterprises mainly focus on executing pre holiday orders, which has eased the short-term shipping pressure. The industry believes that the price of raw rubber may maintain a narrow adjustment this week, and the subsequent trend will closely follow the fluctuations of DMC and downstream procurement rhythm. If the rebound of DMC continues, the raw rubber market is expected to stabilize temporarily; If the demand follow-up is weak, it cannot be ruled out that there will be further downward pressure.