This week, the market price of dimethyl siloxane mixed cyclic polymer (DMC) plummeted sharply, with transaction prices dropping by 300-400 yuan/ton compared to last week. Although the mainstream quotation remained in the range of 14400-1490 yuan/ton, the actual transaction price has dropped to 13700-13900 yuan/ton, with some manufacturers offering discounts of over 5%. The industry's operating rate has slightly decreased to 65%, but the joint production reduction has not yet been implemented, and the market is trapped in a negative feedback loop of "order contraction → inventory accumulation → discount promotion".
The price drop this time is closely related to global trade trends. On April 3rd, US President Trump announced the imposition of "equivalent tariffs" of up to 49% on major trading partners such as the European Union and the United Kingdom, intensifying expectations of an escalation of global tariff barriers. Industry analysis points out that the growth of demand for organic silicon depends on overseas markets, and tariff changes or impact on export expectations may put pressure on domestic inventory. Data shows that the number of new contracts signed by individual enterprises has decreased by 15% compared to the previous period, with Southwest manufacturers offering significant discounts of 800 yuan/ton, while Northwest enterprises only offer discounts of 150-300 yuan/ton, indicating significant regional strategy differentiation.
The market is currently in a critical game period: if leading enterprises can reach a joint production reduction agreement (especially for enterprises with a production capacity of over 400000 tons/year), the price may stabilize at 14000-14500 yuan/ton; If the current construction continues, it may fall below the cost line of 13300 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises are advised to lock in 30% of their basic usage at low prices and focus on opportunities to replenish inventory below 13800 yuan/ton. At the same time, we need to be alert to three major signals: the inventory turnover rate of leading enterprises (with a weekly change of over 5%), the bidding pace in the photovoltaic and construction fields, and the fluctuation of industrial silicon raw material prices (current price of 11500-12450 yuan/ton).
The rise of global trade protectionism has also exacerbated market anxiety. BlackRock CEO Fink warns of a 'strong return of protectionism', stating that global economic unrest is driving down US stock performance. Domestically, the sluggish real estate market continues to drag down demand, causing Country Garden's sales to plummet by over 30% year-on-year in 2024, with revenue decreasing by 37% to 253 billion yuan. According to the 2025 Forbes Rich List, the number of billionaires in the world has surpassed 3000 for the first time. Elon Musk remains the richest person with $342 billion, Zuckerberg jumps to second place, and Trump's wealth has increased to $5.1 billion.
Under the interweaving of multiple factors, the DMC market is experiencing a fierce collision between policies, supply and demand, and expectations. In the future, it is necessary to closely track the details of tariff implementation, industry production reduction progress, and marginal changes in terminal demand.