This week, DMC transaction prices have plummeted across the board! The market presents a mixed pattern of long and short positions, with the price center moving down 300-400 yuan/ton across the board compared to last week. Mr. Wu believes that the future market for organic silicon digestion will mainly be overseas or related to global tariff changes. It is reported that at 4:00 am Beijing time on April 3rd, US President Trump announced the US "reciprocal tariffs" plan at an event held in the White House Rose Garden. The chart displayed by Trump shows a tariff of 20% on the European Union, 10% on British imports, 31% on Swiss imports, 26% on imports from India, 25% on South Korean products, 24% on Japanese imports, 36% on Thai products, 46% on Vietnamese products, and 49% on Cambodian products.
According to industry monitoring data, mainstream manufacturers' quotes remain in the range of 14400-1490 yuan/ton, but actual core customer transactions have generally fallen to 13700-13900 yuan/ton, and some companies with high inventory pressure have offered discounts of over 5%. The main manifestations are as follows: the number of new orders signed by major individual enterprises has decreased by about 15% month on month, and the inventory turnover days have been extended to 10-13 days. Regional strategy differentiation: Southwest individual factories offer discounts of up to 800 yuan/ton, while Northwest enterprises maintain discounts of 150-300 yuan/ton. This week, the industry's operating rate slightly decreased by 2 percentage points to 65%, but substantial joint production cuts have not yet been implemented. The current market presents a typical "negative feedback loop" feature: order contraction → inventory accumulation → discount promotion → intensified wait-and-see attitude → delayed demand.
Industry experts believe that it is necessary to pay attention to whether substantial production reduction agreements can be reached at post holiday industry conferences (attention should be paid to the trends of enterprises with a production capacity of over 400000 tons per year) and the calculation of the critical point of cash flow pressure on individual factories (the current industry average cost line is about 13700 yuan/ton). Downstream enterprises can lock in 30% of their basic usage at low prices and focus on opportunities to replenish inventory below 13800 yuan/ton. If the production reduction alliance of individual enterprises continues to work together, the DMC price may stabilize in the range of 14000-14500 yuan/ton. If the current operation is maintained, it is not ruled out that it will continue to drop to around the cost line of 13300 yuan/ton. The current market is in a critical game window period, and attention should be paid to ① the inventory turnover speed of leading enterprises (caution should be taken when the weekly change exceeds 5%); ② Main application areas: bidding volume rhythm (focusing on tracking the production schedule of photovoltaic module enterprises and building silicone adhesive factories); ③ The price of raw material industrial silicon has fluctuated (the current spot price of 421 # metallic silicon is between 11500-12450 yuan/ton).
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