February 17th News: "A good start" is the annual "highlight" of organosilicon, and historically, the industry has been restless in the spring. Organosilicon practitioners are sprinting towards the beginning of the year, conducting in-depth peak season marketing in order to lay a solid foundation for annual performance growth. The industry believes that the scale of pre-sale orders in January may exceed 100000 tons. The phenomenon of spring restlessness has obvious temporal characteristics. January is still in the brewing stage, February will usher in a better time window, and March will gradually show signs of fatigue.

In 2024, organosilicon has been engaged in a year long "price war", and in the new year, there are still strong expectations of a "price war" both inside and outside the industry. But industry dividends are of paramount importance! According to its logical analysis, if the economy stabilizes or recovers, the thinking of practitioners will also change accordingly, and they will no longer use cold winter thinking to judge industry trends. This is human nature. When the economy is bustling and houses are rising, people feel that they will continue to rise; If people see a profit making effect in the stock market, they will also rush in. In 2025, the downstream application layer is expected to see a hundred flowers bloom and a hundred schools of thought compete, with both domestic brands constantly making efforts and "foreign brands" such as Dow, Shinetsu, and Wacker innovating. The most noteworthy development among them is undoubtedly the grand vision of "organic silicon leather", where every household will showcase their own "expertise"! Silicon industry insiders believe that the 2024 price war will stimulate diminishing marginal utility, domestic demand is still insufficient, and overseas market pressure is increasing day by day. The competition intensity in 2025 will be a "strengthened version" of 2024.
With the gradual clarification of the competitive landscape of industrial chain integration, the industry has entered the stage of brand+technology+value realization and implementation. What has been the biggest headache in the past few years? Excessive competition! In their 2025 New Year's speeches, the chairmen of multiple individual companies called for "not simply engaging in price wars, but firmly opposing 'vicious competition through internal competition'.
Spring restlessness in the first week after the holiday! The wind of deep transformation in the organic silicon industry is blowing, indicating that two and a half years of continuous losses are driving the industry! Each individual factory launches a "maintenance combination punch" to launch a fierce counterattack. Since resuming work after the Spring Festival, major manufacturers in Shandong have sounded the horn of price increases, and the DMC benchmark price has risen strongly by 800 yuan, reaching the 13400 yuan/ton mark. What is even more remarkable is that the three major single entity giants suddenly closed down and reset their pricing system on Wednesday. On Thursday, the opening of DMC by Xinjiang's leading companies jumped to 13800 yuan/ton in a single day, driving second tier manufacturers to collectively rise above 13500 yuan.
According to insiders, the entire industry has reached a strategic consensus to reshape the market landscape through an unprecedented joint production reduction of approximately 1.4 million tons. A staggered maintenance plan will be implemented in February and March, with an additional 20% reduction in production capacity based on the existing operating rate. The determination of this heroic figure to break his arm stems from 30 months of continuous losses - according to 2024 financial data, the average loss per ton of a single factory exceeds 1500 yuan, and the industry has lost more than 10 billion yuan cumulatively.
This round of market trend is not a test, but a decisive battle! "The person in charge of a single listed company bluntly stated that the upstream alliance has set a phased target of 14000 yuan/ton and is aiming to return to the healthy profit range by 2025. Although the recovery of orders has been slow after the resumption of work by midstream and downstream enterprises, the resurgence of the second round of expected price increases has forced the procurement department to urgently replenish inventory. The current market presents a typical "seller driven" feature, with a surge of 80% in daily inquiries from traders.
Faced with the whirlwind of price increases, midstream and downstream enterprises are caught in a dilemma: chasing after price increases and stocking up may encounter price corrections, and waiting and watching may also be afraid of missing the procurement window. But the strong signal released by the production side cannot be ignored - the raw material inventory of multiple individual factories has dropped to the 5-day warning line, while social inventory has sharply decreased by 42% year-on-year. Market analysts point out that this round of supply side reform in the industry will deeply rewrite the ecology of the silicone industry, and those survivors who have survived the winter are trying to rebuild their pricing discourse power. As industry leaders declared in internal meetings, 'This price increase is not a multiple-choice question, but a proof question!'.
Single unit device dynamics: After the holiday, the overall operating rate of each large unit enterprise fell back to 68.3%. Normal operating equipment: Hesheng, Luxi, Xin'an, Hubei Xingfa, Yunsurrender Load equipment: Dow, Xinyue, Wacker, Inner Mongolia Hengyecheng, Zhejiang Zhongtian, Hebei Sanyou, Dongyue, Inner Mongolia Xingxing, Jiangxi Xinghuo
Metal silicon market: Spot market transactions are relatively light, and polysilicon manufacturers have weak purchasing intentions. At present, the overall production still shows a loose pattern, with the main contract price of 421 # in China quoted at 11650-12750 yuan/ton, maintaining a stable trend after the holiday. Organic silicon monomer factories continue their rigid procurement model, and the overall market still maintains a high-yield pattern. From the perspective of supply and demand structure, the metal silicon market continues to be in a state of oversupply, and the current price continues to fluctuate and build a bottom trend. In the current market landscape, there is a clear confrontation between the production side maintaining high-level operation and the weak procurement on the demand side.
DMC market: The overall transaction volume in the market is active, with mainstream market prices remaining stable at 13400-14000 yuan/ton. Although individual manufacturers have recently raised their factory quotes across the board, the slow recovery of terminal demand has not improved. After experiencing a sharp rise, there is currently no significant fluctuation in the market, and the quotes from industry leaders remain at the level of 13800 yuan/ton. It is worth noting that although the actual trading volume has not significantly increased, the speculative atmosphere in the market remains strong, and the price game situation is significant.
107 rubber market: The domestic 107 rubber market shows a regional price upward trend, with a transaction price increase of 300 yuan/ton in the North China market and a 500 yuan/ton increase in both the East and South China markets. Affected by the continuous strengthening of raw material costs, coupled with favorable macroeconomic policies, the market supply and demand pattern presents a tight balance state - the current industry inventory pressure is relatively controllable, and production enterprises adopt a small step increase strategy to gradually digest inventory. It is worth noting that the latest quotation of leading production enterprises has been pushed up to the benchmark line of 14100 yuan/ton, which has driven the mainstream market prices of various brand products to generally adjust within the fluctuation range of 300-500 yuan/ton. In terms of market trading, the active transaction performance of mid to low price goods reflects the phased replenishment behavior of downstream enterprises in the price upward channel, while the stable production capacity regulation on the supply side provides fundamental support for price trends.
Silicone oil market: The current exchange rate for conventional silicone oil in the East China region remains in the range of 15300-16200 yuan/ton, while the variety of silicone oil for cracking materials shows a slight upward trend. The current transaction range has moved up to 13000-13700 yuan/ton. The market fundamentals show a differentiated pattern, although spot prices remain firm, the market trend is affected by fluctuations in the prices of related enterprise products, showing a fluctuating rebound characteristic. It is worth noting that the pressure of accumulated inventory in the industry continues to ease, coupled with the expectation of sufficient supply in the long term, forming a situation of mixed long and short positions. From the perspective of market sentiment, the listing price of 15300 yuan/ton by leading manufacturers has strengthened the bullish expectation in the market, and the mainstream brand prices generally show a fluctuation range of 300-500 yuan per ton. The current spot price adjustment strategy maintains a range operation mode, while the demand side has not fully recovered, which restricts market activity, and the overall inquiry atmosphere is weak. The export sector remains relatively stable and has become an important supporting factor in the current market.
Raw rubber market: The domestic raw rubber market maintains a stable to strong pattern, with mainstream brand prices increasing by 200-300 yuan/ton to 14500-14800 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. Boosted by the high opening of leading manufacturers to 14500 yuan/ton, the trading atmosphere in the spot market has improved, and the price center has shown an upward trend. The pace of downstream enterprises resuming work after the holiday is not yet clear, and coupled with the lack of significant increase in new orders, market participants generally hold a cautious attitude. It is worth noting that although absolute prices remain firm, industry players are still constrained by weak demand recovery and market volatility risks when operating, and generally adopt low inventory strategies to cope with market uncertainty.
Rubber mixing market: The domestic precipitation rubber mixing market has recently shown a narrow range of fluctuations, mainly characterized by the following features: mainstream brand prices remain stable in the range of 13500-13900 yuan/ton, and some precipitation rubber brands have tentatively increased their prices by 50-100 yuan/ton due to the transmission of upstream raw rubber price increases. The supply of high-end specialized materials continues to be tight, and the main production enterprises and traders maintain a high price strategy after the holiday. The support of raw material costs has become the main factor supporting prices. The resumption progress of small and medium-sized silicon product enterprises is relatively slow, and downstream procurement maintains a pace of replenishment for essential needs. The order volume of product enterprises has not fully recovered to the pre holiday level, and the terminal market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with rare large transactions. The actual trading activity is lower than the quoted level, and the spot market shows the characteristics of "firm quotes and light transactions". The inventory turnover cycle of channel merchants has been extended by 20-30% compared to before the holiday. Market prediction: The short-term sedimentation of the rubber market may maintain a stalemate, and the price fluctuation space is subject to the progress of downstream demand recovery. It is recommended to pay attention to the recovery of orders from silicon product companies in late February, as well as the impact of changes in the operating rate of upstream organic silicon monomer units on the cost side.