As the New Year approaches, major corporate entities have entered a crucial closing stage at the end of the year. The latest data shows that the prices of multiple products have generally increased by 1-2% in recent times. Several products, including DMC, 107 rubber, raw rubber, silicone oil, mixed rubber, coupling agents, etc., have seen price increases, and the number of enterprises with month on month sales price increases is gradually increasing. Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year decline in quotations has narrowed for the first time. Entering Tuesday and Wednesday, the demand for pre holiday inventory replenishment is increasing, and market transaction prices are gradually approaching their temporary lows. As of December 19th, the price of Luxi hydrolysate is 12200 yuan/ton, DMC spot price is between 12700-13700 yuan/ton, raw rubber spot price is 14200-14500 yuan/ton, 107 rubber mainstream spot price is 13700-14000 yuan/ton, domestic silicone oil price is 14800-16500 yuan/ton, imported silicone oil price is 18500-19500 yuan/ton, 421 # metal silicon price is 12500-13100 yuan/ton, chloromethane price is 2650-2750 yuan/ton, and high hydrogen silicone oil price is 7500-7800 yuan/ton.
Looking ahead to 2024, the global economic situation will become more complex and severe. The prevalence of trade protectionism may constrain global trade and economic recovery, while geopolitical conflicts may have a negative impact on the supply of global commodities such as energy. Therefore, the domestic economy still needs to continue to make efforts to expand domestic demand, promote employment and income increase for residents, and address risks and hidden dangers.
At the 2024 Silicon based New Materials Technology Innovation and Application Conference, industry experts proposed that the industry should focus on three aspects of work next year. Firstly, we need to increase the release of domestic demand and promote the research and production of more silicone products for a better life. Secondly, it is necessary to improve the supply side structure to ensure that individual enterprises improve product quality while stabilizing their existing production capacity. Finally, we need to promote industry transformation and steadily advance the construction of new models and development paths for the organic silicon industry.
According to industry experts' analysis, the current supply and demand situation in the domestic organic silicon market is quite complex. Although the domestic supply of organosilicon is sufficient and both domestic and imported inventories are at a high level, the inventory of cracking materials has shown a trend of recovery. Overall, the domestic market still faces the dual pressure of loose supply and weak demand. DMC's spot inventory is at a historical high, and it is expected that the supply will continue to be abundant until the first quarter of next year; The destocking process of raw rubber has accelerated, but it is still affected by the expected output of major manufacturers; The import profit of silicone oil continues to invert, and in the short term, demand only maintains the basic demand level, making it difficult for inventory to increase rapidly. Despite the approaching 'traditional replenishment season', market demand has not shown a significant rebound, and the effect of boosting demand is limited.
At the same time, the penetration rate of silicone in ice and snow leisure tourism products is expected to continue to increase. According to the data of the 2023-2024 ice and snow season, the number of ice and snow leisure tourists in China exceeded 385 million, a year-on-year increase of 38%, and revenue increased by 50%. It is expected that the number of visitors during the 2024-2025 ice and snow season will exceed 500 million, a year-on-year increase of about 30%, and the total revenue of ice and snow tourism is expected to exceed 700 billion yuan. The scale of China's ice and snow industry is also continuously expanding, growing from 270 billion yuan in 2015 to 890 billion yuan in 2023. It is expected to exceed 970 billion yuan in 2024 and is expected to surpass 1 trillion yuan next year. In addition, the sales revenue of ice and snow equipment enterprises in China has also shown rapid growth, increasing from less than 5 billion yuan in 2015 to around 22 billion yuan in 2023.
In these industry dynamics, strategic adjustments and market changes of enterprises may become important concerns in the coming months.