Keep going strong! At present, the mainstream trend among midstream and downstream enterprises is to adopt a wait-and-see approach, with relatively low inventory pressure on individual factories and strong stabilizing sentiment. DMC quotations continue to range from 12800 to 13500 yuan/ton, with a partial shift in transaction focus. In terms of demand, during the traditional off-season, midstream and downstream enterprises are experiencing sluggish shipments, and under a wait-and-see attitude, they are maintaining a buying spree to replenish their inventory. Due to the fact that it is not yet the end of month stocking stage, the upstream and downstream are deadlocked this week, and it is expected that some companies may make small moves to break the transaction deadlock next week. On the cost side: From the perspective of industrial silicon, the production reduction of large northern factories has entered a state of significant production capacity reduction, but the demand side for polycrystalline silicon production reduction is also expected to be significant, so the price support for industrial silicon is relatively limited. In addition, after the cancellation of old warehouse receipts for industrial silicon futures, the supply of warehouse receipts will continue to circulate to the spot market, which will also bring supply to the market. Overall, under the high inventory in the early stage, the benefits brought by the recent large-scale production cuts are difficult to quickly ferment, and the supply-demand contradiction still needs some time to ease. In the future, we need to continue to pay attention to the extent and timing of production cuts by leading factories.
Precipitation white carbon black market: On the raw material side, some sulfuric acid markets have shown a supply shortage situation this week, with prices maintaining high levels; In terms of soda ash, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the overall market is weakening. The prices of light alkali and heavy alkali remain stable at 1100-1800 yuan/ton. The cost fluctuation is not significant, and this week the price of precipitated white carbon black for silicone rubber remains stable at 6300-7000 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, downstream rubber mixing enterprises are currently experiencing a decline in production, maintaining a strong demand for precipitated white carbon black, and market trading continues to remain flat. Overall, as of the end of the year, the market for precipitated white carbon black has maintained a weak and stable operation, with repayment being the main focus.
Gas phase white carbon black market: On the raw material side, trading in the A-share market slowed down on Monday, with prices in Shandong dropping to 1500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan, while the northwest region continued to operate at a high level. The cost aspect has weakened, but the silicon dioxide plant can still accept orders, and there is still a relatively sufficient and stable customer base for medium and high-quality large factories. Therefore, this week's high-end quotation for 200 meter gas-phase white carbon black is 25000-27000 yuan/ton, and the low-end quotation is 18000-19500 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, the terminal demand is generally low, downstream enterprises continue to operate at a low level, and there are not many orders. However, the liquid adhesive market is currently developing well, and the demand for essential products continues to grow. This is accompanied by a certain increase in the purchase of gas silicon, and the market trading atmosphere is improving. Overall, it is expected that the market for gas-phase white carbon black will continue to operate steadily and positively in the short term. Overall, individual factories will maintain a high price and destocking state, and downstream enterprises will carry out pre year stocking layout in the future. Individual factories may adopt a strategy of first falling and then rising. In 2025, the situation of oversupply in China will continue, and the industry generally lacks confidence in the market, always wary of the possibility of a rapid decline after a rally. In short, under the imbalance of supply and demand, the market will continue to tug back and forth at low prices.