Approaching the end of the month, the organic silicon market has reached a critical turning point! From the on-site perspective, Shandong monomer factories are currently not accepting orders for DMC, and linear monomers are opening at a low price, bidding at 13000 yuan/ton to accept orders, fully launching an impact on the organic silicon market and wanting to explore a new market pattern. However, downstream enterprises still need to strengthen their confidence in new products. With a small number of orders placed, everyone is waiting for the first batch of feedback, so the transaction status of new products still needs to be followed up. In terms of other individual factories, leading factories remain stable at a high level, and some maintenance facilities are also temporarily stable and waiting to be seen. However, driven by the low prices of online entities, a bearish atmosphere is gradually emerging in the market. Some DMCs are still focused on stimulating transactions. Currently, DMC quotations have fallen to 13400~14200 yuan/ton, and actual transactions are 13200~13500 yuan/ton, down about 400 yuan/ton from last week. In the short term, the shipment volume of new production capacity is still limited, and inventory pressure is not high for other devices under the operation of load reduction. However, market purchasing sentiment is being disrupted by low prices, and the "tacit understanding and stability maintenance" that was finally formed in the upstream is being disrupted. A new competition has quietly begun
On the cost side: In terms of supply, there is an expectation of reduced production in the southwest as it enters a dry season, while new production capacity may be added in the northern region, and the overall production capacity level remains at a medium to high level. The improvement in the fundamentals of industrial silicon is relatively limited, coupled with the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, which puts heavy pressure on prices. Currently, spot prices are fluctuating at the bottom. As of October 21st, the price of 421 # metallic silicon remains at 12000-12700 yuan/ton, and the price of monochloromethane in Shandong region is 2300 yuan/ton. Overall, the cost remains weak, and DMC still has profit support, which also means that individual factories have some room for concession in order to accept orders. In terms of operating rate: Currently, the three facilities in Shandong, Hebei, and Zhejiang are mainly operating to reduce load, and the output of 400000 tons of new facilities is not high at the moment. The overall operating rate remains at around 66%. Although the supply increment in October is limited, in November, two maintenance facilities in Shandong and Zhejiang will restart, and new production capacity will gradually advance. The huge production capacity is expected here, and the storm is about to come, and the price war may begin again.