The word 'stability' comes first! In the new week, the silicone market is calm and composed. From the perspective of the market, there is still no significant improvement in terminal demand recently, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high prices; The two major indicators in Northwest and Shandong continue to hold steady prices, with DMC quotes ranging from 13700 to 14200 yuan/ton. However, individual factories have already started to explore price increases in August, and pre-sale orders are mostly scheduled for mid to late August, so there is not much pressure on shipments in the short term. Since the start of the upward trend in August, this bottoming out rebound has lasted for more than a month. Taking Shandong single plant as an example, DMC has risen from 12900 yuan/ton to 13700 yuan/ton. Although there are slight adjustments of 100 and 200 yuan each time, the slow and steady pace of DMC has also led to a cumulative increase of 800 yuan/ton. And during this period, the metal silicon has fallen more than it has risen, and the profits of individual factories have basically improved significantly! Multiple individual factories' performance reports for the first half of the year showed a year-on-year increase in net profit, achieving a turnaround from losses to profits. This week, the semi annual reports of 20 organic silicon giants including Hesheng, Luxi, Dongyue, Xin'an, Hengxing, and Nengtou have been released! DMC has entered a consolidation stage after rising, with pre-sale orders being the main focus of each unit, and downstream inquiries for new orders being average after a brief replenishment. Behind the current stability is another covert game, and it is expected that DMC prices will remain stable with small fluctuations before the holiday.
On the cost side: On the supply side, due to the impact of high temperature restrictions in Sichuan, some areas have started to reduce production, while several large factories in Xinjiang have maintained high operating levels, but most of them have high self use rates, supporting spot prices to continue rising despite overall production contraction. On the demand side, polysilicon prices remain stable, but component prices have fallen again, and bearish sentiment has led to average signing performance; In terms of organosilicon, the monomer factory maintains a stable stock volume, which has limited improvement in industrial silicon procurement. Overall, the fundamentals of the industrial silicon market have improved. Yesterday, the futures contract price of Si2411 was reported at 9760 yuan/ton, rebounding by 235 yuan. However, the loose supply side pattern has not changed, and coupled with the cooling of macro sentiment, the resistance to rebound still exists. The spot chemical grade 421 # metal silicon has risen from 12000 to 12800 yuan/ton. The overall cost remains weak, while the profit of individual factories shows a positive improvement. In terms of operating rate: a single factory in North China is expected to undergo maintenance in mid month, and inventory is expected to be low in the near future due to reduced supply; We need to be vigilant in the future. With the increase in profits, some individual units or hidden devices may increase production capacity. In September, against the backdrop of the inability to release new production capacity, individual factories have maintained their current production reduction efforts, and the rebound market may continue until the end of the month.

On the demand side: After the delay of new upstream production capacity, it has to some extent boosted the confidence of midstream and downstream enterprises in stocking up. However, as we enter the traditional peak season of "Golden September", there has not been a surge in terminal demand, and with the continuous phased stocking of middle and lower reaches, most enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the pursuit of price increases is gradually fading, resulting in weak trading of high priced new orders. Therefore, although midstream and downstream enterprises enjoy the price increase, they dare not easily add inventory. They hope to take more orders in the atmosphere of price increase and quickly digest inventory to ensure safety. Overall, the organic silicon market is showing a situation of stabilizing and digesting after the rise. Based on the fact that major manufacturers have taken the lead in adjusting prices for one round, it is mainly expected to remain stable before the holiday. With the delivery of pre-sale orders in the middle and late stages, a new round of price trends may emerge.