The news that the leading company announced a 10% increase was like a heavy bomb, causing waves in the industry. This is not only a big number, but also a signal that the silicone industry is undergoing new changes. The global network and innovative technologies of leading enterprises may bring unprecedented changes to the industry. At present, organosilicon is at a triple turning point of short-term stabilization and recovery, the industry's anti internal competition cycle driven by the rise of top enterprises, and the continuous catalysis of new products by downstream giants. Top enterprises will take the lead in implementing measures such as reducing load and production, driving up both quantity and price. In addition, in the long run, leading enterprises will accelerate the exploration of downstream innovative application forms. Downstream products such as silicone leather and functional vapor phase adhesives are expected to explore more new application scenarios under the empowerment of anti involution, accelerating the innovation of silicone technology forms.
According to monitoring data, as of August 30th, the mainstream spot prices for DMC in China were 13600-14000 yuan/ton, 14700-15300 yuan/ton for raw rubber, 13900-14300 yuan/ton for 107 rubber, and 15200-17000 yuan/ton for silicone oil. 421 # metal silicon is reported at 12500~13100 yuan/ton, and chloromethane is reported at 2150~2300 yuan/ton. Most individual enterprises have their orders scheduled until mid September, and the peak demand season for Jinjiu is expected to be realized. After experiencing the pains of a year-on-year decline in global demand growth and rapid release of supply, insiders in the silicone industry believe that the industry is gradually approaching the end of its downward cycle, and will enter a market reshaped by top enterprises in the future. The repositioning of the industry and innovation in technology and development models will lead the silicone industry into a new era. The optimization of the industry competition pattern will inevitably benefit the long-term development of the organic silicon industry. These top players will also build higher barriers and achieve higher quality development under the protection of policies and the increase of market space.
On August 31st, the National Bureau of Statistics released the August PMI index, with the composite PMI output index recording 50.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; The manufacturing PMI index was 49.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; The non manufacturing PMI index was 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing PMI has further fallen within the contraction range, staying below the boom bust line for four consecutive months, indicating that China's manufacturing industry has weak recovery momentum, poor economic prosperity, and increased downward pressure on the economy. The manufacturing PMI in August also showed the following characteristics: from the demand side, although there were high temperatures and heavy rain in many parts of China in August and some industries entered the off-season, the problem of insufficient demand was still prominent. The demand index was significantly lower than the boom bust line, and there was greater pressure for further contraction; Due to the sustained weak demand, the ability to digest inventory is seriously insufficient, which in turn constrains production activities. The continuous split between production and demand activities in the early stage has led to a serious supply-demand imbalance, and the negative impact on economic fundamentals is beginning to emerge; The problem of supply-demand imbalance further leads to a significant decline in price indices below the boom bust line, and the sustained weak operation of price levels is not conducive to the improvement of enterprise operating profits.
Single unit device dynamics: Consensus has been reached on reducing production and increasing prices, with an overall operating rate maintained at around 69%. Normal operating equipment: Dow, Xinyue, Wacker, Xin'an, Hubei Xingfa Load Reduction Equipment: Hesheng, Luxi, Inner Mongolia Hengyecheng, Zhejiang Zhongtian, Hebei Sanyou, Dongyue, Yuntou, Inner Mongolia Xingxing, Jiangxi Xinghuo
Metal silicon market: The domestic 421 # metal silicon market has average transactions, with the main contract price reported at 12500-13100 yuan/ton. The auction for the supply of goods has been successful, but the overall demand for individual enterprises has not changed much. The cargo holders are flexible in handling the shipment, and the actual situation revolves around negotiations. The atmosphere of on-site trading is dull.
DMC market trend: The focus of the domestic DMC market has shifted upwards, with mainstream market prices fluctuating by 100-150 yuan/ton, reported at 13600-14000 yuan/ton. Macro market support is still acceptable, with stable online reports. The supply of DMC spot fundamentals has slightly decreased, industry inventories remain low, and the focus of spot transactions is stable and bullish. The spot exchange rate in Guangdong is maintained at 13650-13750 yuan/ton, and the DMC cracking material is stuck at 12500-12800 yuan/ton. The purchase price of raw materials is mostly between 4500-4700 yuan/ton.
Silicone oil market: The domestic silicone oil market is sorted out, with mainstream market prices fluctuating by 300-500 yuan/ton, mainstream manufacturers reporting 15200-16900 yuan/ton, and cracking material silicone oil reporting 13500-14300 yuan/ton. The prices of top silicone oil brands in Anhui are approaching 17000 yuan/ton, with cracking material silicone oil priced at over 13000 yuan/ton, and Dow Xinyue Wacker silicone oil priced at 19700-21500 yuan/ton. Market supply is gradually returning, downstream demand is slowly recovering, and there is no positive boost. However, there is not much pressure on silicone oil companies, and they mainly focus on raising prices, so prices fluctuate narrowly.
107 rubber market: The domestic 107 rubber market is weakly stable and consolidating, with prices of certain grades rising by 50-100 yuan/ton. It is reported that the import price of 107 glue is 15700-16500 yuan/ton, and the domestic mainstream brand price is 13950-14800 yuan/ton. The price of cracked 107 glue is quoted at 13500-13700 yuan/ton. Considering the limited improvement in pressure on the real side, the upward trend of spot goods is limited compared to the follow-up of factory goods, and the rebound space of the market is restricted. However, the maintenance of Xingfa and Dongyue facilities has affected the industry's supply, resulting in a tightening of supply and low demand for essential purchases. The transaction situation is average.