Entering Friday, the organic silicon market maintained a stable trend this week, but there were frequent small and medium-sized movements in the dark. Specifically, currently the main individual factories still have pre-sale orders supporting them, with strong quotations, while other individual factories face greater supply pressure, resulting in a situation of imbalance and making concessions for transactions. On the demand side, due to the slow increase in new production capacity of individual factories, the cost of industrial silicon continues to decline, and downstream enterprises are once again bearish. The phenomenon of price cutting inquiries is heating up, and some individual factories have increased their profit margins to a certain extent. In the short term, the demand side still has the upper hand, and the current strong supply and weak demand performance is obvious. To alleviate this situation, everyone agrees that there will be another wave of market trend at the end of the month, which may be seen next week.
In terms of industrial silicon, there has been relatively little change in the supply side and overall production side. The pace of resuming production in the southwest region remains stable, and the expected increase remains unchanged. On the demand side, some polycrystalline silicon enterprises have plans to expand their maintenance scale, and there is an overall expectation of a decrease in industrial demand; In terms of organic silicon, some individual units in Shandong, Hebei, and Zhejiang have undergone maintenance, resulting in a slight decrease in supply. However, new production capacity has been gradually introduced, stabilizing the demand for industrial silicon.

Overall, the demand for industrial silicon market has not shown significant improvement, and the fundamentals continue to fluctuate weakly. This week, the futures market hit a new low, although there was a slight correction in the future, the contract price (si2400) fell by 70 to 10570 yuan/ton yesterday, and the price of 421 # metal silicon also dropped to 12700~13300 yuan/ton. In the future, under the pattern of high supply and weak demand, the price of industrial silicon will continue to be under pressure and decline. With the loosening of its bottom, there is a possibility of further bottoming out of DMC prices.
Precipitation white carbon black market: On the raw material side, the demand support for sulfuric acid market remained strong this week, and with the decline in production, sulfuric acid prices maintained a slight increase; In terms of soda ash, downstream market stocking sentiment is not good, and demand is the main focus. Soda ash enterprises mainly digest early orders. This week, the domestic light alkali quotation is 1600-2150 yuan/ton, and the heavy alkali quotation is 1700-2300 yuan/ton, with stable operation. From the perspective of downstream orders, the silicon products market maintains on-demand procurement, and the delivery of mixed rubber orders is average. In addition, the stock of white carbon black is also average. Currently, the quotation for precipitated white carbon black used in silicone rubber continues to be 6300-7000 yuan/ton, and the market will continue to operate weakly and steadily in the short term.
Gas phase white carbon black market: On the raw material side, the price of methyl chlorosilane continued to decline on Monday due to oversupply in the market. Currently, the price of methyl chlorosilane in Shandong region is 2000 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 350 yuan, and in Northwest region it is 2300 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 500 yuan. Part of the gas-phase white carbon black was also sold at a discounted price based on cost, but under the constraint of high quotes from major manufacturers, the market remained stable. Currently, the high-end quote for 200% gas-phase white carbon black continues to range from 24000 to 27000 yuan/ton, while the low-end quote ranges from 18000 to 22000 yuan/ton.
Specifically, the import and export sentiment of downstream companies such as silicone rubber and coatings is relatively average. However, the liquid rubber market has been continuously expanding recently, and some rubber compounds have actively increased their production of atmospheric phase rubber, which has driven some orders for gas silicon. Overall, the supply and demand of gas silicon are relatively balanced. Due to quality differentiation, price is not the focus. The core competitiveness of gas silicon enterprises lies more in technological innovation, and orders for medium and high-quality gas silicon factories are basically filled at the beginning of the month. Expected to continue stable operation in the short term.
Overall, most industry insiders believe that the market has basically bottomed out, but downstream consumption is not as fast as upstream supply, and stocking sentiment is still mainly cautious. However, the hidden battles among individual factories continue. Under the pressure of declining costs and weak demand, in order to avoid losses, the transaction prices of orders are also controlled extremely carefully, and the supply-demand game is relatively smooth.
Looking ahead, as we approach the end of the month, there are still expectations for the "Golden September" project. In a stable situation, there are eager replenishment operations, but the timing of the demand node is still unknown. What we need to consider now is how to seize the opportunity to gain more market share, and we need to carefully consider our business operations.