Halfway through the week, the organic silicon market continued to experience a surge of liquidity this week. From the perspective of the DMC market, the continuous decline in costs has increased the bargaining chip for individual factories to offer discounts. Currently, the mainstream DMC quotation remains at 13300~13900 yuan/ton, and actual transactions can negotiate a discount space of 100-200 yuan. From the perspective of the middle and lower reaches, although some companies have made low price layouts and slightly improved new order transactions under the stimulation of low prices, the weak demand environment has not changed, and the overall stocking volume has not increased significantly. The trading atmosphere is still dull and tasteless.
In the short term, individual factories are expected to reduce production and burden to a bottleneck period, fluctuating around 70%. As industrial silicon prices decrease and production becomes profitable, there is little expectation for further burden reduction in individual units. However, the release of new production capacity is also slow, and the supply side will not intensify growth for the time being. Currently, there is a frequency of small declines, and a wait-and-see attitude is gradually emerging in the middle and lower reaches, waiting for the opportunity to make long layouts below the 13000 mark.
Raw rubber market: This week, the raw rubber market remained stable with some looseness, and the mainstream quotation continued at 14200~14300 yuan/ton. From the perspective of orders, downstream rubber mixing plants continue to replenish their inventory at low prices, while the preferential policies for Class A and B customers of the main rubber factories still maintain a significant advantage in competition. In addition, the 3+1 sales model is relatively friendly to some financially strong and order oriented rubber mixing enterprises. Therefore, the main large factories still maintain their dominant order situation, while other rubber mixing plants can only continue to reduce their burdens. However, the mixed rubber enterprises have a strong pessimistic sentiment and are relatively conservative in their procurement. Most enterprises control their stock levels within 15-20 days.

In the short term, the situation of one dominant player in the raw rubber market is difficult to change. Yunnan raw rubber factories are actively following up, mainly focusing on core customers. It is expected that the raw rubber market will maintain weak and stable operation in the short term, and more changes may be reflected in the sales model.
Rubber mixing market: The mainstream price for rubber mixing this week is 13000-13400 yuan/ton. In terms of price, last week the main bulk factories launched a combination discount model for raw rubber and mixed rubber in order to reduce their inventory as soon as possible. However, the mixed rubber factories are relatively calm. In the current booming market, price is not the only reference. Quality and after-sales are competing, and small price differences are difficult to form advantages. Therefore, most mixed rubber enterprises still focus on purchasing raw rubber and producing it themselves.
In the short term, small and medium-sized rubber mixing factories find it difficult to have breathing space driven by low prices in the upstream. Many companies are expanding their presence in the fields of liquid adhesives, power adhesives, insulation adhesives, etc. Some forward-looking enterprises have accumulated technical expertise in the early stages, and currently face relatively less survival pressure. They are increasing price competition for conventional products and further expanding their market share! The situation of big fish eating small fish is constantly unfolding.
On the demand side: The performance of orders from silicon product factories varies, with first-hand orders still holding the upper hand advantage. The profit margin of the mid to high end product series remains good, while areas such as silicone pacifiers and leather maintain a growth trend. The products have achieved breakthrough growth in both domestic and international markets. And with the long-term low demand for raw materials, silicon product companies are focusing on expanding their marketing markets. Founders have entered the short video industry to create silicone enterprise IPs. Regardless of the video quality, it is at least conducive to the breakthrough development of silicone products.
In recent summer, there has been another heat wave for small household appliances, and export orders are also relatively optimistic. From a profit perspective, large enterprises focus on quality upgrades, can accept market orders, and have relatively stable profits. Enterprises that mainly rely on processing orders have limited bargaining space and can only earn meager processing fees through bidding.
In the long run, the demand for silicon products continues to grow, and the rapid expansion of upstream markets in the past two years is beneficial for silicon product factories to accelerate the substitution process at low prices. If they can grasp the pain points of customers, silicon product companies can carve out a "blood path" in the competition of the stock market.
Overall, the game between upstream and downstream is still ongoing, and after several rounds of testing, the price bottom line seems to have not been reached yet, and market trading is enduring like this.