This week, the organic silicon market rebounded from a low level, and the average DMC price increased by 100 yuan/ton on a week on week basis. In the first week of July, the production of individual factories was significantly reduced due to poor profits and the impact of high-temperature weather maintenance. However, with the improvement of inventory replenishment sentiment, demand has also rebounded, and the inventory of individual factories continues to decline. Social inventory has slightly accumulated, and the supply-demand contradiction has been alleviated. The industry believes that supply and demand remained weak in July, with a slight increase in inventory and cautious market sentiment.
The industry safety production inspection is here! This week, the supply of the top three products was tight, soaring by 2000 yuan to 19100 yuan/ton, driving the overall rebound of some organic silicon products. In the first half of the year, the trend of "price for quantity" in the organic silicon market continued, with a cumulative price drop of 10.3-25%, which has been falling for three consecutive months. In early July, driven by the entry of large restocking companies into the market, the ex factory prices of individual enterprises increased by 100-300 yuan/ton. Although the organic silicon market has continued to fluctuate recently and trading volume has also shrunk, the expectations of top players for the market direction in the second half of the year can be summarized as "neutral to optimistic" overall. In terms of replenishment response, more emphasis is placed on the two dimensions of "delivery time" and "quality stability".
Monitoring data shows that on Friday, the industrial silicon contract 2409 closed down by 265 yuan, with a closing price of 11260 yuan/ton. The 421 # industrial silicon also fell by 200 yuan/ton, and the spot price was reported at 13400-13700 yuan/ton. DMC reported a price of 13500-13900 yuan/ton, with some large DMC rubber factories experiencing an increase of 100-300 yuan, while chloroform remained stable at a price of 2000-2200 yuan/ton. This week, the operating rate of 9 individual factories was 69.71%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points compared to last week and a decrease of 5.67 percentage points compared to last year; The data shows that the profit margin of individual factories has increased compared to the previous week, while others have slightly decreased. However, the supply side still maintains high supply, which puts some pressure on the organic silicon market.
With the end of the 618 promotion period, the demand for silicon product consumption and brand stocking in July has weakened. Different opinions within the industry hold that this week's DMC production has slightly decreased, with an increase in total and social inventory, and a slight decrease in table demand; The production of raw rubber has increased, with an increase in total and social storage, and a decrease in surface demand; Considering the weather, the period with the worst seasonal demand may have ended, but the absolute value of demand is low, and there are currently no bright spots in production and demand. In June, the manufacturing PMI remained flat on a month on month basis, with a slight decrease in the new order index. In July, the production of silicone rubber and mixed rubber may experience a significant decrease in year-on-year growth, and the sales growth rate of mixed rubber may decline. Some downstream demand growth has begun to slow down, limiting demand for organic silicon. At present, the organic silicon market itself remains in a weak state, lacking clear upward drivers, and will still fluctuate with the cost side. In addition, the payment completion rate of sample orders has decreased month on month, and the overdue payment in the silicone field has expanded. The pattern of weak demand continues to put significant pressure on the price of organic silicon.
Single unit device dynamics: With the arrival of high temperature weather, the overall operating rate has fallen, and factories with insufficient orders have started to shut down for maintenance. The domestic operating rate is around 69%. Normal operating devices: Dow, Xinyue, Wake, Hesheng, Luxi, Inner Mongolia Xingxing, Inner Mongolia Hengyecheng. Load reduction devices: Zhejiang Zhongtian, Hebei Sanyou, Dongyue, Xin'an, Jiangxi Xinghuo, Hubei Xingfa, Yuntou
Metal silicon market: The domestic 421 # metal silicon market is in chaos, with mainstream brand prices falling by 200 yuan/ton to 13200-13800 yuan/ton. The willingness of individual factories to receive goods is relatively low, and there are more single negotiations for transactions. The price of actual negotiations has dropped, and the atmosphere on the market is very low.
DMC Market: The domestic DMC market continues to rise, with mainstream market grades rising 50-150 yuan/ton to 13500-13900 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, some large households replenished their inventory, causing a slight rebound in market prices. Traders shipped at high prices.
Silicone oil market: The domestic silicone oil market has seen a narrow rise, with mainstream market grades rising by 200-500 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, silicon oil enterprises have concentrated maintenance, with a significant decrease in production and operation compared to the previous month. However, industry inventories remain in stock, and market demand is in high demand. The market price center is building low, with Anhui's top silicon oil brands reporting over 16000 yuan/ton, cracking material silicon oil reporting over 13000 yuan/ton, and Dow Xinyue Wacker silicon oil reporting 19500-21500 yuan/ton. Although silicon oil prices are generally bullish, there is also a reality of insufficient market demand.
107 glue market: The domestic 107 glue market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, rising by 100-150 yuan/ton. The raw material DMC has a narrow range of sorting, with a high focus and acceptable cost support. The supply of goods in the market has slightly decreased, and merchants have slightly increased. The buying and wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the trading atmosphere is average. It is reported that the imported 107 rubber is priced at 15500-16500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream domestic brand is priced at 13950-14800 yuan/ton. The price of cracked 107 glue is reported at 13200-13500 yuan/ton. There is great potential for silicone adhesive to go global, and the export boom will help release the performance of top adhesive companies. The expansion trend of overseas silicone adhesive market remains unchanged, and with the improvement of domestic brand layout and the growth of new overseas channels, efforts are being made to expand overseas. Export data shows that the export market is recovering, and overseas customers may continue to replenish inventory; Pay attention to Southeast Asia, which may become a new growth pole for China's brand silicone adhesive exports. In the future, the silicone adhesive industry will become increasingly diverse, and there is significant room for improvement in the penetration rate of overseas silicone adhesives. Top silicone adhesive companies based on core competitiveness such as brand, product, and channel will fully benefit.