After the Lantern Festival, the middle and lower reaches of the market resumed work, and the market turnover was gradually active, and the silicone market was officially on the right track. Today, the opening price of Shandong monomer plant rose another 200 yuan, and DMC rose to 17000 yuan/ton, while other monomer plants began to pull up yesterday, and DMC reported 17400 yuan/ton; 107 Rubber reported 17500-17700 yuan/ton, raw rubber 18000-18300 yuan/ton, silicone oil 1950-20000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 400-500 yuan/ton. Since the online offer of the leading monomer factory has not been adjusted, the low price order receiving performance is good in the context of price increase. Today and Tuesday, it is expected that the probability of following up the price increase is high.


In general, organosilicon has hit the bottom for a long time, and under the support of the consensus of the upstream and downstream, a small rise is inevitable. At present, the demand side recovers generally. Most enterprises digest the inventory, and a small amount of additional replenishment. Whether the first rise of the rabbit year can be successfully achieved depends on the downstream stock situation.


From the perspective of supply side: after the Lantern Festival, many industrial silicon enterprises officially resumed production, adding to the increase of devices in Xinjiang during the Spring Festival. At present, the spot supply of metal silicon is relatively strong, while the demand for raw materials is not strong due to the reduced load operation of single factories, resulting in the continuous decline of metal silicon price. The price of 421 # metal silicon fell by 100~150 yuan/ton yesterday, with the quotation of 18300~19400 yuan/ton. In addition, the stable price of methyl chloride in Shandong is 2850 yuan/ton. In the short term, the cost side continues to decline slightly, which is conducive to the early recovery of profits of the single plant.


In terms of operating rate: at present, the units in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions have basically recovered, the long-term shutdown units in Inner Mongolia are planned to restart, and the new capacity in Xinjiang is about to be put into operation. Although there are still four or five single plants operating at reduced load, the operating rate in February remained unchanged, and the overall unit operating rate is about 66.25%.


Demand side: 2023 is a real post-epidemic era, with all kinds of industries waiting to prosper, and various policy benefits coming in succession, constantly injecting a strong shot into the market. The economic trend this year is certainly better than last year. The demand side of organic silicon gradually reverses and recovers after the holiday, and the loss area is also improving. However, due to the rapid expansion of monomer production capacity, the imbalance between supply and demand is difficult to reverse, and the middle and lower reaches are also careful to follow up the inflation, and the pace of stock preparation needs to be gradual.


In general, this week is the first week of full construction. The price increase has been brewing and started. The next step is to verify the recovery rate of demand. In general, at the current price, even if the demand is less than expected and the price cannot rise, it will be difficult to fall below the low price before the year. It is expected that the short-term temperature and the exploration will rise, and stability will prevail. With the arrival of the traditional peak season in March, organosilicon may be able to wait for an opportunity to turn the tables.