A one-day increase tour. The silicone market has stabilized for nearly a week. On Saturday, some monomer plants in Shandong Province increased 100, but it only lasted for one day. On Sunday, the opening price fell back to 16600 again. This operation is obviously out of skill! Now in December, the time is pressing, and the accumulated inventory cannot wait. It is not clear whether the fast forward key or the slow forward key will be used after the pause key last week. Some industry insiders made reference to the historical low price in 2016, but at that time, the metal silicon was only about 12000 yuan/ton, and now it is more than 20000 yuan. Although the current supply and demand relationship can no longer simply use the cost as a price reference, the single factory can't afford to make it this way no matter how rich it is, Therefore, the probability of DMC continuing depth callback is small.


As for the downstream, whether to stock up before the year was still confused. The release of the seals and the property market had three major benefits. It seemed that the darkness before dawn would come to an end. It might be a good opportunity to stock up at a low level before the year. However, we all know that supply exceeds demand has entered a long period, and there are too many uncontrollable factors outside, which makes it difficult to form a lasting support for a single factory. This week's upstream and downstream activities may focus on the theme of preparing goods before the year


107 glue market: Last week, the domestic 107 glue market was stable and fell, with no significant decline. As of December 2, the 107 glue market quoted 17300-17500 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, 107 Rubber Factory mainly trades in price for quantity. Last week, some monomer factories were overwhelmed and stopped again. At present, 107 Rubber Factory started at a lower middle level. Due to the staggered DMC, the downstream stock fluctuates, and the supply of goods in the yard continues to be abundant. This week, in order to seize the opportunity to reduce the stock as soon as possible, some 107 rubber plants may break the stability maintenance and make small profits.


Demand side: The macro environment still needs to be improved. The operators remain cautious, and the actual orders are still mainly small ones in demand. With the further reduction of temperature, the demand for glue in the north and south is differentiated. Driven by the stable investment policy and the accelerated issuance and use of special bond funds, infrastructure investment is expected to speed up, major projects will speed up the implementation, which is good for the market atmosphere to a certain extent. The demand for glue in the south still has some release basis, but the demand in some parts of the north will further shrink. Electronic glue and photovoltaic glue are good enough, but they do not account for enough in the field of silicone glue, and it is difficult to reverse the decline in demand for 107 glue.


In the short term, the stock of 107 glue warehouse is relatively high. Near the end of the year, the space for releasing terminal demand is limited. It is expected that the 107 glue market will fall steadily and secretly this week.


Silicone oil market: Last week, the domestic silicone oil trend continued to be stable, and the trading atmosphere was cold. As of the 2nd day, the silicon oil market quotation was 19000-20000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, DMC has always been weak, which is difficult to support the silicone oil market. At present, most silicone oil manufacturers have approached the cost line, mainly maintaining order customers. The price adjustment of manufacturers has slowed down, and the hollow state of the market has eased slightly. In addition, the rise of foreign brands of silicone oil has formed a certain positive support for domestic silicone oil. Some orders have returned to domestic manufacturers, increasing the motivation for domestic silicone oil to stabilize.






In terms of foreign brand silicone oil, the extended maintenance plan of Zhangjiagang devices is the main factor for the rebound of foreign brand silicone oil. The agents are short of cash, and the price of individual orders is 23000-23500 yuan/ton, up 6.9% weekly, with partial closing.


On the demand side, the current downstream pickup is still dominated by rigid demand, and the market is relatively flat. The off-season effect of silicone adhesive in China is outstanding, and the manufacturer's inventory pressure remains. Recently, the textile and chemical industry has been greatly affected by the Yi situation. The domestic sales data of domestic textile and clothing has continued to decline. The replenishment window of foreign textile and chemical industry has entered a semi closed stage. This month, it is facing the Double Twelfth Festival and Christmas. Only a few small orders have been issued. Near the end of the year, domestic demand for silicone oil is difficult to improve effectively. The majority of export orders are inquired, and the buyer and seller cannot reach a consensus on the price, which is basically in a stalemate.


On the whole, the support of the cost side is unstable, and the downstream is dominated by the need to follow up, lacking confidence. It is expected that the silicone oil market will still be dominated by weak and stable operation this week.


Cracking material market: new materials can't stir up storms, so cracking materials naturally lie flat. At the end of the year, silicon products are not intended to be disposed of at low prices. Waste silica gel recyclers receive a small amount of goods while cutting meat to deal with high price inventory. The quotation of rough edges is kept at 6000~6300 yuan/ton. For the cracking material enterprises, the upside down has eased slightly at this time, but this year's losses are too much, and the initiative has been exhausted. Last week, they were still working hard to remove the high price inventory, and the DMC offer of cracking material was reduced to 15000~15500 yuan/ton (excluding tax).






In the short term, the downstream demand is limited, and most of the cracking material plants are struggling. Every step is cautious, and it is still "safe today" to explore the way to seek life. However, the irrational speculation of waste silica gel is not worth the loss. It is expected that the contradiction between supply and demand of cracking materials and waste silica gel will be eased slightly in the future, but the order of the product factory is still needed to recover if the cracking materials are to return to the normal profit point.


Raw rubber market: Last week, domestic raw rubber maintained stable operation. As of the 2nd day, the raw rubber market quoted 18000-18500 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the operating rate of raw rubber plants maintained a load reduction, and the competition image was strengthened due to the poor warehousing of various manufacturers. On the demand side, the low price DMC of some manufacturers has boosted the bearish sentiment of rubber mixing plants. Most enterprises believe that raw rubber can fall below 18000. Therefore, they prefer to purchase in small quantities in multiple batches, wait for a week, and decide the stock plan before the year as appropriate.


In the short term, the expected contraction of market supply has offset some negative pressure. This week, the raw rubber factory may take action to take some orders just needed for the rubber mixture, but the margin is limited.


Rubber mix market: the raw rubber is stable, and the rubber mix is mainly discussed. As of the 4th day, the price of conventional rubber mix market was 16000-17000 yuan/ton. Some enterprises believe that there is still a wave of yield at the end of the year. Therefore, they are actively shipping in the near future to make room for the next round of low price goods. The current transaction price is chaotic. As far as we know, some small-scale rubber mixing plants and product plants have planned to stop production during holidays. It is expected that after New Year's Day, the market will usher in a holiday tide.


In the short term, due to the weak cost and loose supply, it is difficult to improve the price, and the shelf life of the rubber compound is short. The probability of silicon products factory preparing in large quantities before the year is low. Will the leading factory promote the rubber compound again? We are still deeply worried.