Stable opening after the festival! In October, there was still no sign of "Silver Ten". The single plant became more cautious in trading, with a steady decline of 200-300. Downstream enterprises also had to buy while testing, and the main body was to wait and see. Yesterday evening, the live broadcast activity of the leading monomer factory for many days was finally started. All the peers actively participated in the activity. Xiao Bian was also squatting in the live broadcast room to grab a red envelope. However, the thunder and the rain were small, and a huge price difference was formed before the festival. This discount margin was difficult to stimulate the market, and people in the industry just joined in the excitement. The last prize of Wuling Hongguang miniev was won by a Xiamen rubber and plastic enterprise.


At present, the DMC price is 17500~18300 yuan/ton. Yesterday's stimulus was limited. The middle and lower reaches expressed disappointment, and there were many bearish expectations for the future market. At the same time, other monomer plants also privately negotiated with core customers to give way to profits. Although it was a one-man show on the surface, the actions of all parties did not stop. On the first day after the festival, the stock removal was not as expected, and DMC with stable prices for a holiday may enter a period of periodic fluctuations.


From the supply side: after the festival, the price of chemical grade silicon 421 # Huangpu Port was stable at 21500~21800 yuan/ton, while the price of methyl chloride in Shandong fell to 4200 yuan/ton, a sharp drop of 1100 compared with that before the festival. The cost fell slightly, the demand of middle and downstream enterprises was limited, the supply of monomer plants was excessive, and "more wolves than meat" continued to increase competition pressure. It is estimated that the possibility of individual plants to yield profits in the future market is large, and the DMC price may fall further.


In terms of operating rate: At present, single plants in central China, northwest China and southwest China continue to operate under reduced load. However, on the whole, there are not many devices planned to be overhauled, and there is a risk of new capacity being put into operation in the fourth quarter. In the long run, single plants have a long way to go in the stage of overcapacity, and I will look up and down. Live broadcasting is just the starting point, and there are more new models waiting to be opened in the future.


On the whole, in the fourth quarter, the market showed no obvious signs of improvement, and the insiders had been tempered to death by the first three quarters. However, the destocking of the upstream in recent two months is not ideal, and the risk of stock accumulation appears. The cost can be used as a reference. However, in the face of oversupply, everything is shipment oriented. Therefore, it can be expected that the current stability maintenance is only in the planning of the next trading, and the probability of future DMC shocks is high. For downstream enterprises, the DMC price is stable at present, while terminal demand is weak. Under their own reasonable inventory, they are not eager to stock up, but there are pessimists, and there are also optimists. Some enterprises still have expectations for "Silver Ten", and there may be a wave of replenishment in recent days. To sum up, the silicone market has remained stable and small this week, and it is difficult to rebound without a sharp wave.