Break the defense again! Late last Friday, mines were released. On Monday, some monomer plants in Shandong kept falling. DMC reported 17400 yuan/ton. The DMC price has entered the era of 17000+. Other monomer plants temporarily maintained the price of 18000~18800 yuan/ton. At present, the price difference between high and low DMC is up to 1400 yuan/ton, and the incentive from the upstream to the downstream is limited. After all, the price difference between manufacturers is still large, and the main inventory scaling operation has not ended. In addition, the willingness to go to the warehouse before the festival is high. In the short term, the high DMC is expected to make up for the decline. Note! Today, the low quotation of Shandong monomer factory has begun to stabilize.


From the supply side, the price of raw materials continued to rise this week, and the production limit of Yunnan metal silicon was implemented. According to SMM data, a total of 147 industrial silicon furnaces were built in Yunnan. This energy efficiency management involves 18 submerged arc furnaces, and the load drop was implemented from 24:00 on September 25. Dehong Prefecture implemented the production limit in batches and by turns, and guaranteed to stop production of 8 silicon furnaces every day. The total impact of this production limit is expected to be about 14000 tons per month. Yesterday, chemical grade silicon metal was quoted at 21300~21600 yuan/ton, up about 300 yuan/ton. Monochloromethane in Shandong Province was quoted at 5550 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton, putting further pressure on the cost. However, in order to reduce the stock, the monomer plant has already put the cost behind, or said that the excessive stock has forced the monomer plant to reduce the price again and again, and even formed the current situation of being linked with the raw metal silicon. Overall, In order to absorb the excess capacity, the monomer factory also accelerates the layout of the middle and downstream industrial chain, which to some extent also means that the middle and downstream markets become more convoluted.


In terms of operating rate: some units in East China, Central China and Northwest China are operating at a reduced load, but the operating rate of individual plants is still high at present in response to the continuously weak demand of the middle and downstream markets, so the situation of oversupply is difficult to solve in a short time, and there is a risk of accumulation.


On the whole, at present, the monomer factory is "fighting" for competitive shipping, but facing the situation of "no one taking over" in the downstream, it is also in an embarrassing situation that the more it does, the more it loses. After all, the terminal demand is there. If the downstream enterprises want to stock up, they have to consider whether the order quantity can be supported. In the short term, the losses have been further deepened. The long holiday is coming, and some individual plants have said that they will not keep up with the decline before the festival. However, for manufacturers in urgent need of stock reduction, these two days are still the key stage of the game. In the future, the economic environment is not good, and it is still difficult to release potential from the demand side. Even if the downstream market is concentrated on bottoming out, the market will not be "crazy", and it is probably low to maintain stability.