The Mid Autumn Festival is getting closer and closer. Last year's madness is difficult to repeat, but a wave of upward market is brewing in the upstream. At the beginning of this week, a number of monomer factories fell openly, steadily and secretly. DMC offered profits to 19000 yuan / ton for promotion. At present, the inventory has been relieved. Yesterday, it rose by 300 one after another. Today, some monomer factories in Shandong opened steadily, and DMC reported 19200 yuan / ton. The quotation of 421 # metal silicon at Huangpu port has risen to 20700-21000 yuan / ton, and the price of methyl chloride in Shandong has risen by 100 to 5700 yuan / ton. The cost continues to rise, giving the monomer factory some confidence in price. However, the leading monomer factory has held steady for ten days, sticking to 19800 yuan / ton. Will it rise horizontally or fall for a long time? It is estimated that there will be no action until after the festival.


Silicone oil and 107 glue: after a wave of DMC ups and downs, 107 glue has been shipped upside down for a week, and the inventory pressure has been released slightly. Yesterday, some monomer factories raised 107 glue by 300, with a quotation of 19600-199000 yuan / ton. Silicon oil enterprises have been greatly impacted by foreign giants. According to our understanding, some foreign brands of silicon oil have recently made a wave of deep profit concessions, and many large downstream companies have taken the opportunity to make up their positions. However, domestic silicon oil has been close to the cost and is unable to resist. Therefore, it is temporarily stable at about 23000 yuan, and the trading situation is poor.


In the follow-up, the big profit concession of foreign silicone oil has come to an end, and the price of bulk orders has returned to 24000-25000 yuan / ton. Now DMC has a rising trend, which helps the confidence of domestic silicone oil enterprises in stabilizing prices. As there is an appropriate amount of short covering in the downstream, it remains to be seen whether the rising will stimulate the transaction.


Cracking material silicone oil and 107 glue: at present, new materials are steadily rising, and waste silica gel recyclers are eager to try to rise. This week, the price of raw edges is 7700-8000 yuan / ton, but there are fewer and fewer cracking material factories that can buy it. From the recent commencement, the production reduction and shutdown of old cracking material factories have increased. New cracking material factories have also been frustrated by the pressure of losses this year, and some manufacturers have even begun to resell equipment. In the short term, even if the new material rises, it will only let the high-priced inventory in the early stage escape, and will not change the current dilemma of pyrolysis material, and the shuffle process is inevitable.


As there is no space for the delivery of the cracking material 107 glue for a long time, the cracking material plants still in production are all dominated by silicon oil, so the competition is also quite fierce. This week, the price of silicon oil for cracking material is between 21000-22000 yuan / ton (excluding tax), and it keeps running upside down with new materials.


On the whole, recently, the cost has been increasing, the energy crisis in Europe has been worsening, and a large number of chemical enterprises are facing production reduction, or they may help the domestic chemical market. For the upstream manufacturers who have been struggling on the cost line for several months, how can they miss any opportunity to increase. It is expected that before the Mid Autumn Festival, the overall offer of individual factories will show a slow rising trend. If the demand for replenishment of stocks before the festival is expected to be improved, it may be expected to rebound after the festival. Otherwise, the downstream will not do anything, and the possibility of callback after the festival is greater.


Future outlook: Although we are in the peak season of "golden nine and silver ten", there is no sign of hot demand for the time being, and the upstream and downstream of organosilicon are still facing a severe situation. Some people in the industry who have been depressed for a long time also hold different views. Some people who are happy to watch the rise believe that in the fourth quarter, whether it is single factories, macro policies and demand side, there will be some efforts. This is a good time for low-level layout. The bears believe that the global economy is facing various crises. Winter has just begun. Don't have any illusions this year. Lying flat is also a strategy.


Xiaobian believes that the leading monomer factory has not yet adjusted, and the demand is still short of heat. At this time, the foundation for pulling up is not stable. In the middle of the festival, the downstream inventory is also consumed one after another, and the early orders of leading monomer factories are basically delivered. In order to receive new orders or stimulate another round of pullback, the downstream is buying positions at low prices. Driven by the traditional peak season, supply and demand resonate or usher in a substantial rebound. So, what do you think of gold, silver and ten on the screen? Welcome to leave a message!