The price has gone up! The price has gone up! Recently, the electric brush has exploded in the circle of friends. The raw materials continue to rise, and the monomer factories have suffered losses. Everyone is looking forward to the leader monomer factory's statement. Yesterday, a few monomer factories in Shandong increased by 200 to 19100 yuan / ton. Then, the leader monomer factory started to make efforts, and the two consecutive increases in a day. DMC, 107 rubber and raw rubber increased by 1000 one after another, returning to the 20000 + stage. The long suppressed desire of other monomer factories to explore the price has finally been released, Naturally, it is necessary to follow up the increase quickly. At present, the mainstream quotation of DMC is 20000 yuan / ton; Raw rubber, 107 rubber 20500 yuan / ton. In addition, the wind of power restriction not only drives up the product price, but also stimulates the silicone stock to become red in a large scale.


From the supply side, the driving force of DMC price increase this week is mainly from the cost side. Yesterday, Sichuan issued a power restriction policy for 6 days, which basically covers all the metal silicon production capacity in Sichuan. In addition, affected by the situation in Xinjiang, the logistics is not smooth. The two main metal silicon bases, due to sudden factors, have a rapid decline in the operating rate, and the supply reduction may last for a period of time, resulting in the continuous rise of metal silicon prices. Yesterday, the price of chemical grade metal silicon 421 # Huangpu port increased by 750 to 20000-20500 yuan / ton. However, the orders of most monomer plants are not good, and due to the impact of sufficient supply during the wet season, the purchase of metal silicon was not active before. Now, in order to avoid the rapid rise of costs, the willingness to purchase metal silicon is strengthened, which further promotes the driving force for the rise of metal silicon.






In terms of operating rate: the current price is rising, and the pressure of loss is slightly relieved. The original plan of active maintenance may be put on the sidelines for the time being, and a decision will be made depending on whether the demand is followed up or not. This week, Hebei, Zhejiang and Hubei all stopped to reduce the negative pressure. The overall operating rate is still high, which is not conducive to the sustained price rise.


From the demand side: at present, the power restriction policy has been issued in many places, Yiwu Yi situation is under closed control management, and the downstream enterprises are also affected by it. The operating rate has also been reduced. At the same time, due to the fact that the terminal orders have not been ideal, the downstream enterprises have not changed their orders yesterday. Therefore, they have always kept restraint in chasing up the price. Yesterday's low inventory actively just needs to replenish their positions, and the last round of bottom reading is still watching carefully. Therefore, the transmission of the rising trend is not achieved overnight, and it will inevitably experience a supply and demand game.


To sum up, under the pressure of loss, the rise is reasonable and reasonable. In the short term, the logistics in Shihezi region of Xinjiang is not smooth, and the orders for bottom reading in the early stage may be delayed, which is good for spot trading. Therefore, there is no need to be too pessimistic about the transactions after the recent rebound. However, we also understand that with the current demand, the rebound can only be close to the cost line. In fact, from the rise of metal silicon, it can be seen that production reduction is the last word, and the balance between supply and demand can achieve the same frequency resonance effect. In the short term, we still need to pay more attention to the operating rate of manufacturers and the trend of metal silicon! Manufacturers with empty inventory still need to stock up appropriately. The rebound in cost is also a rebound. Who is willing to continue to make loss shipments when there is no alternative.