After being bombed repeatedly over the weekend, on the first day of August, organosilicon showed a low and stable level, and the high level fell. The online offer of DMC of leading monomer factory remained stable. Today, Shandong monomer factory opened at 9 o'clock, and DMC also fell to 19200 yuan / ton, while other monomer factories fell by 500 or 1000, and DMC reported 19500-20000 yuan / ton. At present, the demand in the middle and lower reaches is general, and those with large inventory at low prices in the early stage are still mainly consuming inventory, waiting for the opportunity to sell at a lower price, while manufacturers whose inventory has been digested have low bullish expectations, and temporarily replenish their positions as needed. In the short term, the decline of DMC price has been limited under the cost containment, but if the upstream operating rate does not decrease, it will be difficult to balance market supply and demand, which will inhibit the rebound at the bottom to a certain extent.


From the perspective of supply side: at present, the quotation of chemical grade metallic silicon 421# Huangpu port is 18400~18900 yuan / ton, and the price continues to be stable, while the quotation of monochloromethane in Shandong is still 6000 yuan / ton, which puts great pressure on the cost of some monomer plants that extract raw materials, and has shown a state of loss at present. In terms of devices: in the first half of July, the production reduction was strong, and the downstream actively replenished the warehouse, so the inventory of monomer plants was released. However, in late July, the maintenance devices were restarted one after another, and the downstream goods preparation was also in wait-and-see. Therefore, the contradiction between supply and demand rose again, and the decline continued. At present, the profitability of monomer plants is challenged again. It is understood that many devices in Zhejiang, Inner Mongolia and Hebei have plans to reduce the burden.


From the demand side: in order to boost the downstream stock sentiment, a series of deep falls have been close to the bottom. Therefore, those who have stock demand enter the site to prepare a batch of goods in the next day or two, and some of them have sufficient inventory. They temporarily restrain the bottom hunting sentiment, look at the trend in the next two days, and then make plans, and have a more radical view on the decline. On the whole, the complex situation makes it difficult for the demand to recover in the short term. Therefore, insiders dare not have too high expectations for the market. Even if they are eager to try to copy the bottom, they dare not stock up in large quantities.


To sum up, based on the fact that the terminal demand is not awesome for a long time, most downstream companies do not have much profit to compete for orders, so now the raw material procurement starts with low prices and waits and sees as soon as the price rises. In the long run, the organosilicon market has entered a period of short-term fluctuations, and the price adjustment is irregular, which consumes energy, confidence and patience for both upstream and downstream. It is expected that this week will be another volatile market that will fall first and then rise. However, after the restorative rebound, it still depends on whether the leaders are ruthless in reducing production, otherwise it is likely to be a short-lived market.