In April and may, the whole silicone market was in a depression. When analyzing why the market was so depressed, there were two words: Shanghai. In China's economic system, great Shanghai leads the general trend. During the period of closure and control due to the epidemic, taking Shanghai as the leading place, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are all deeply affected. When asked when it can be the inflection point, it is also impossible to bypass the greater Shanghai. Almost all people regard the unsealing of Shanghai as the decisive moment for the silicone market to turn from decline to rise.

On Wednesday, June 1, DMC of a monomer factory in Shandong reported 21400 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton. Other monomer factories offer 22000 yuan / ton, but the transaction is made by transferring profits; In the same period, 421 fell to 18200-19800 yuan / ton, with a daily decrease of 400 yuan / ton.

On June 5, during the Dragon Boat Festival, the DMC of a monomer factory in Shandong reported 20700 yuan / ton, a further drop of 700 yuan / ton. During the festival, the impact was small, just the mood.

On June 6, the first day after the festival, the DMC of a monomer factory in Shandong reported 20000 yuan / ton, a further drop of 700 yuan / ton, and the downstream was slightly loose. In the afternoon, the DMC price of Longtou monomer factory was adjusted to 20800 yuan / ton (barrel price per ton).


On June 7, the situation changed. DMC of a monomer factory in Shandong reported 20100 yuan / ton, rebounding by 100 yuan / ton. The leading monomer factory was raised to 21300 yuan / ton.


On June 8, the last two days of the college entrance examination, the DMC transaction price of a monomer factory in Shandong was 22200 yuan / ton, rebounding 2100 yuan / ton. The leading monomer factory showed no weakness, rising by 2000 yuan / ton and offering 22800 yuan / ton (barrel price per ton).

Here, the market seems to be really getting better. However, at this stage, it is time to stop and think about what causes the price to rise by 2000 yuan / ton from June 7 to June 8. The single factory can not explain clearly, and the downstream can not explain clearly, so we can only set up a Longmen array.


Talk about the downstream: the downstream of the silicone industry has had to be upset with the fluctuation of the upstream price for many years. More recently, since 2017, the upstream has been the leader for most of the time. Except for the emergency stage of Yi situation in 2020, there was a short right to speak, and there was basically no other time. However, people will always buy up rather than down. Once the price begins to rise, there will be a wave of frenzied looting. During the two days from June 7 to June 8, the order volume of the monomer factory tended to be crazy. Within two hours, it had to be closed. Therefore, the market decision-makers of upstream manufacturers will also think that if the price continues to rise, the profits will be lost too much?


On June 9, the DMC transaction price of a monomer factory in Shandong was 22300 yuan / ton, rebounding by 100 yuan / ton. The price of other monomer plants was 22500 yuan / ton, which remained stable.


On Monday, June 13, the DMC transaction price of a monomer factory in Shandong was 22000 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton. The prices of other single factories were stable at 22500-22800 yuan / ton.


On June 14, the shares of silicone listed enterprises became popular, with an increase of 8.06-10%, but the transaction price of DMC of a monomer factory in Shandong was 21200 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton. When I got here, I began to fail to understand.


On June 15, the transaction price of DMC of a monomer factory in Shandong fell by 700 again, and the transaction price was 20500 yuan / ton.


Today, on June 16, Shandong monomer factory has rebounded by 300, with a quotation of 20800 yuan / ton. What will happen next? Let's first look at what happened between June 9 and June 15.


To see these days clearly, we should start from June 8. At 9:28 a.m. that day, the bidding of a single factory ended, and the transaction price was 22200 yuan / ton. After a small meeting, the prices of other single factories were collectively raised. As there was no sign of the price increase, the downstream was caught off guard and placed orders one after another in the Mongolian circle, locking all orders for the next month or even two months. On June 9, DMC, raw rubber and 107 rubber were even out of stock. I believe that on that day, many people regretted not placing more orders.


After a short frenzy, it was quiet after all. After only one weekend, on Tuesday, which determined the weekly price trend, the price of a monomer factory in Shandong continued to decline. In fact, the main road to simplicity is just that the downstream customers are unable to add new orders after centralized ordering, because the downstream customers are still not much improved. The pricing mechanism of a monomer factory in Shandong Province is to continue to reduce the price if it is sold. Although it is divorced from the pricing system of other monomer factories, it is closely combined with the silicone market. In a sense, it can be said to be a leader and weathervane.


Today's rebound does not mean that the price has stopped falling, nor can it stimulate the downstream to prepare goods. In the next few days, the general rate will still be reduced. In such a short time, the whole market can only get on track after consuming the crazy orders for 7-9 days. Downstream and take that day's crazy robbery after the groundless price rise as the teaching of rational purchasing in the future.