The holiday is over, and the difficult days of the silicone industry continue. On the first day after the festival, Shandong monomer factory opened steadily at 26000 yuan / ton, but the bearish sentiment after the festival was widespread because it had fallen by 400 before. In terms of downstream demand, the high-speed traffic is limited during the holidays, and the access of provincial roads outside the city is also limited due to the epidemic control. Because the decline before the festival is not in place and the downstream goods are not actively prepared, there is a wave of demand for replenishment in the downstream after the festival. Yesterday, everyone was waiting for the quotation of leading manufacturers to determine the stock volume according to the price, while the upstream manufacturers were also actively contacting the middle and downstream customers to understand the stock demand and set the price. This phenomenon reflects the intensity of upstream and downstream game to a certain extent.


At present, due to the poor performance of the upstream destocking process before the festival, the obvious stability and hidden decline have appeared. However, the profit margin has not reached the downstream expectations, and most of them focus on on on-demand procurement. Today, Shandong monomer factory lowered 300 again, and DMC quoted 25700 yuan / ton.


From the supply and demand pattern of the industrial chain: the raw metal silicon 421# Huangpu port fell 200 yuan to 21800 yuan / ton yesterday, aggravating the negative impact. Under the continuous influence of the large-scale production process launched in the upstream of the silicone industrial chain recently, the supply pressure of DMC is increasing. Especially in the first quarter, the supply of new devices from Dongyue, Xingxing and energy investment has been fulfilled one after another, while the demand for downstream silicone oil, room temperature glue and high temperature glue is dragged down by the domestic epidemic. The inventory pressure in the upstream is gradually highlighted as a whole, especially the inventory of leading manufacturers hotly discussed in the industry, I don't know when to impact the market in large quantities. Everyone is worried that they will become the man who takes over the plate upon admission, and they lack confidence in bottom reading.


Raw rubber, silicone oil and 107 rubber Market: after the festival, the prices of raw rubber, silicone oil and 107 rubber are also one of the mainstream of concern. From the market quotation we learned yesterday, although the online offer of leading monomer factories maintains the pre Festival price, some manufacturers also seem to be stable or do not offer temporarily, but the actual transactions of many factories have been followed up one after another. The transaction price of raw rubber is about 27500 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of 107 rubber is about 27000 yuan / ton, The transaction price of silicone oil is 31000-32000 yuan / ton and 1000-2000 yuan / ton lower than that before the festival; Replenishment is needed in the downstream.


Generally speaking, the terminal demand after the festival has not been significantly boosted. The market confidence of room temperature glue and high temperature glue is insufficient, the production enthusiasm is not high, and the overall environment is still in a relatively weak state, resulting in the high inventory in the upstream can not be effectively released. Therefore, when the supply of goods is sufficient, if there is not enough space for operation in the middle and lower reaches, it is likely that they will not store goods in batches. It is estimated that a price war is inevitable in the silicone market this week under the multiple negative conditions of low raw material cost, strong supply and weak demand! However, the lower reaches can not blindly sell down. Under the stimulation of the upper reaches, when they reach or approach the expected low price, they should act decisively.