Last day of March! Can silicone stop falling and stabilize? Yesterday, the DMC online offer of individual monomer factories in Shandong remained 27000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of other mainstream monomer factories also remained stable at 28000 yuan / ton. However, there is room for negotiation in the transaction, and the profit margin is about 1000-2000 yuan / ton, close to the cost line. Some of the empty positions are properly prepared downstream, but the overall trading atmosphere is still not ready, and some downstream purchases are still tangled between preparation and unprepared. In particular, we are not sure. The mainstream leading monomer factories have received orders poorly in recent months, and the size of the inventory is still a mystery. We can't understand what operations will be carried out in the future. Therefore, the middle and downstream manufacturers temporarily prefer to replenish their positions in a small scale and in an appropriate amount, and the large-scale hoarding remains to be followed up.


Silicone oil and 107 glue: from the supply side, due to the fact that the mainstream monomer factories compete with each other for shipment, the raw material cost support is basically lost, the silicone oil and 107 glue continue to weaken, and the offer has fallen sharply. This week, the quotation of silicone oil is 34000 ~ 35000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 107 glue is 28000 ~ 28500 yuan / ton. In order to sell goods and cash out in advance, interest transfer transactions are also emerging one after another. However, as DMC is close to the cost, the profit margin is also tightening, the panic of silicone oil and 107 rubber factory is reduced, and the pace of goods selling is also slowing down appropriately. In recent months, foreign brands of silicone oil and 107 glue have continued to have a huge price difference with China, and it is difficult for agents to ship at a high price. In order to promote the transaction, they can only sell at a profit, and the pressure of loss appears.


Cracker silicone oil and 107 glue: the price war of new materials continues to fly this week, and the upside down phenomenon of cracker is also intensifying. At present, the DMC of cracker is reported at 25000 ~ 26000 yuan / ton, and the 107 glue is reported at 26500 ~ 27500 yuan / ton, both of which are tax-free prices. This passive situation is still caused by the insufficient decline of waste silica gel. At present, the raw edge quotation of waste silica gel recyclers is 10000-10300 yuan / ton. According to the transaction price of new materials, the cracking material factory can only purchase raw edges less than 10000 to barely ship at a loss. Therefore, both sides are in a stalemate. At present, the inventory of cracking material raw materials and products is low, and the shipment is also cold due to the upside down.


From the demand side: the monomer factory has released water sharply. In order to go to inventory and sell at a low price, all enterprises have started a wave of small demand for replenishment this week, but the passion for hoarding goods in the downstream has not been fully stimulated. Most manufacturers still maintain the mentality of falling and replenishing in the future. In terms of export orders: domestic silicone oil has obvious price advantages, but recently affected by the overall decline and the upgrading of epidemic prevention in Shanghai, port shipments have been affected to a certain extent. Under various difficulties, export orders have cooled down. However, with the deepening decline of silicone oil and the narrowing of profit margin, foreign trade enterprises are also ready to place orders, and the silicone oil factory may receive orders next week.


On the whole, after these vigorous declines, the downstream demand and stock mentality began to be stirred up. After a wave of replenishment in the middle and lower reaches of this week, the price stabilization mentality of upstream manufacturers will appear again. But on the whole, there are still many uncertain factors in the market, such as the inventory release of a large factory, when the demand will return to normal under the epidemic, and there are still new production capacity put into operation in April. In the short term, after the crash, the upstream and downstream supply and demand game has entered the balance stage, focusing on stabilization and repair, with a small range up and down.