The domestic silicone industry began to develop rapidly in more than ten years, and then many enterprises concentrated on large-scale new projects, which led to the rapid expansion of domestic production capacity in a short time, and then entered the stage of long-term overcapacity. From 2010 to 2016, most silicone monomer production enterprises were in a state of loss, during which some enterprises stopped production and some were acquired until 2017, The market began to improve, and in 2018 and 2021, it was at a high profit for the whole year.






With the advent of this round of super profit cycle, silicone has also ushered in a new round of production expansion. In 2015, China's silicone monomer production capacity was about 3.1 million tons / year. Most enterprises began to plan to expand production in 2018. However, due to the impact of epidemic and other factors, the production capacity expansion progress was less than expected. At the beginning of 2021, the total production capacity was about 3.36 million tons / year, and many were completed in 2021. However, except Hesheng Shihezi was put into operation in the first half of the year and Yunneng silicon was put into operation at the end of the year, other production capacities failed to be put into operation. At the beginning of 2022, Due to the increase in exports and the short-term shortage of goods, it gives everyone the feeling that silicone can still maintain a long-term high outlook. As everyone knows, at present, about 900000 tons / year of production capacity has been built and is in the commissioning stage. It is expected to be put into operation in the second quarter. About 700000 tons of production capacity will be put into operation in the second half of 2022. By the end of 2022, the total production capacity is expected to exceed 5 million tons / year. In 2023, about 1 million tons of production capacity will be completed and put into operation. Although the production capacity under construction is very large, there are nearly 3 million tons of planned expansion or new construction capacity. At the same time, new expansion or new construction projects are constantly announced. More and more enterprises begin to layout silicone, and the new production capacity under construction / proposed to be built has exceeded the existing production capacity. Although the demand for silicone is in the stage of rapid growth at this stage, with the current production expansion speed and scale, it is expected that there will be obvious overcapacity from the second half of this year, and it will take some time to digest the overcapacity at that time.






For the monomer enterprises under construction / to be built, we need to be vigilant and prepare for overcapacity to avoid a swarm of influx and more serious overcapacity. At the same time, we should also vigorously develop new application fields in the downstream, and we should not be confused by short-term price increases and high profits.






For the majority of downstream enterprises, the next few years will be a golden development cycle, and the shortage of raw materials and high prices will soon ease. However, it should be noted that at present, monomer enterprises are constantly extending the industrial chain, and the production of basic polymer silicone oil, silicone rubber, raw rubber and compound rubber will continue to concentrate on monomer production enterprises. The downstream is less and less competitive in these products. If you want to seize this round of Golden cycle development, you must develop to a more refined field.