In the mid-to-late September of 2026, the supply and demand pattern of China's white carbon black industry undergoes profound restructuring. The core of industrial development has shifted from simple capacity expansion to product functional upgrading, and market differentiation becomes increasingly obvious. The problem of overcapacity of ordinary precipitated white carbon black continues to stand out. Demand recovery in downstream traditional rubber, general coatings and other fields is weak. Manufacturers face pressure on product delivery, prices fluctuate at low levels for a long time, industrial profits are slim, and price competition continuously consumes corporate operating capacity. On the contrary, high value-added products such as functionally modified white carbon black and fumed silica maintain steady demand growth. Orders in emerging fields including new energy tires, high-end organic silicone, electronic packaging and lithium battery supporting sectors are sufficient with considerable product premium space, which serve as the core driving force for industrial growth.

　　The upstream raw material market stays generally stable. Prices of sodium silicate, soda ash, sulfuric acid and other raw materials fluctuate within a narrow range, and the cost side’s pulling or suppressing effect on the spot price of white carbon black is significantly weakened. The industrial competition logic has undergone fundamental changes. Low-end products compete for raw material costs, while high-end products compete in surface modification technology and application supporting capacity. Small and medium-sized manufacturers lacking R&D strength and single product lines can only obtain orders by cutting prices with weak risk resistance. Leading enterprises rely on refined production and customized modification technology to develop special grades for different downstream customers, and gain stable returns through product performance and technical services.

　　The capacity elimination process in the low-end white carbon black track keeps moving forward. A large number of small and medium-sized capacities are concentrated in the general filling field with serious product homogenization, only applicable to ordinary rubber products, low-grade coatings, conventional silicone filling and other scenarios. The operating rate of downstream traditional manufacturing industries is not high, purchases are made on demand without strong willingness to stock up, leading to a slow sales pace. Coupled with the continuously tightening energy consumption and environmental protection policies, the rectification pressure on old high-energy-consumption production lines increases. Many factories without technical upgrading capacity gradually withdraw from the market, and industrial resources keep concentrating on leading enterprises with scale and R&D advantages.

　　High-end functional white carbon black sees growth across multiple downstream tracks. In the new energy tire industry, as the penetration rate of new energy vehicles rises and tire formulas keep optimizing, highly dispersible white carbon black can reduce rolling resistance and improve wet grip performance. Tire enterprises keep increasing its proportion in formulas. Orders for high-end grades are abundant and the delivery cycle of some products is extended. In the organic silicone industry, hydrophobically modified white carbon black is widely adopted in high-end sealants, liquid silicone rubber, thermal conductive gel and electronic silicone materials. It can improve the strength and aging resistance of finished products and optimize powder dispersion, acting as an essential reinforcing filler for high-end organic silicone formulas. In fields such as photovoltaic encapsulation, energy storage buffer materials and lithium battery diaphragm coatings, demand for ultra-high-purity special white carbon black keeps rising. Domestic products accelerate import substitution of imported powder, opening up continuous market increment space.

　　The foreign trade market presents an obvious product stratification trend. The export of ordinary precipitated white carbon black faces fierce competition. New capacities in Southeast Asia and the Middle East are continuously launched, seizing the global low-end powder market with low costs. The export prices of domestic basic grades are under pressure and export profits keep shrinking. High-end modified white carbon black, highly dispersible white carbon black and fumed silica gain rising recognition in overseas high-end markets. Overseas buyers pay more attention to batch stability, low-carbon qualification and supporting technical services instead of merely comparing unit prices. The export volume of domestic high-end white carbon black rises steadily, advancing import substitution and overseas market expansion simultaneously.

　　Low-carbon production and carbon footprint certification have gradually become the access threshold for high-end supply chains. When screening suppliers, European and American multinational purchasers require carbon footprint reports, production traceability documents and environmental compliance materials in addition to product test reports. Leading domestic enterprises actively develop circular production processes, using rice husk ash and industrial by-products as raw materials to produce white carbon black, cutting production energy consumption and carbon emissions to smoothly enter high-end supply chain systems. Restricted by outdated equipment and high energy consumption, small and medium-sized low-end production lines can hardly complete low-carbon transformation, gradually losing cooperation opportunities with high-end customers, which further widens industrial polarization.

　　In terms of technological research and development, the localization process of domestic special white carbon black keeps accelerating. Domestic enterprises have broken through key processes for ultra-pure fumed silica and nano-modified white carbon black that used to rely on overseas imports. They continuously upgrade technologies in purification, surface activation, microstructure regulation and other aspects, developing special grades for cutting-edge fields including pharmaceutical excipients, high-end cosmetics, 6G high-frequency substrates, flexible sensing materials and degradable composite materials. Leading enterprises have also transformed from simple powder suppliers into formula partners for downstream customers, providing customized modification schemes and full-set application technical support according to customer working conditions and formula requirements.

　　Market forecast: The structural market trend of the white carbon black industry will continue in Q4 2026, and there will be no price surge across the whole industry. Low-end filling-grade white carbon black will remain trapped in low-price competition with limited room for price increase, and backward capacities will be eliminated faster. Demand for high-end functional, modified and ultra-pure special white carbon black stays strong. Downstream tire, organic silicone, coating and new energy enterprises start year-end stocking in Q4, bringing potential periodic growth in orders for high-end products. In the medium and long term, the white carbon black industry has bid farewell to the era of capacity competition. Future competition focuses on four directions: functional modification technology, low-carbon production technology, supporting services for emerging industries and customized technical services. Leading enterprises mastering core technologies and high-end customer resources will continue to enjoy dividends from industrial upgrading.