In the middle‑to‑late September of 2026, China’s silica industry has officially entered a phase of stock‑based competition. Overall market demand no longer sees explosive growth, and the industrial growth logic has shifted from capacity expansion to value improvement. The market for ordinary precipitated silica suffers from oversupply with long‑term low prices. Small‑and‑medium‑sized manufacturers earn thin profits and face mounting operational pressure. In contrast, high‑end silica products featuring customized modification, stable supply guarantee and full‑set technical services gain stronger pricing power, maintain high loyalty among leading downstream clients and deliver relatively attractive profitability. Upstream basic chemical raw materials including water glass, soda ash and sulfuric acid fluctuate mildly. The impact of raw‑material costs on corporate profits gradually weakens, and gaps between competitors lie more in technical support, supply‑chain assurance and customer service systems.

　　On the supply side, China’s total silica capacity has reached a saturated state. The pace of new‑capacity commissioning has slowed noticeably, and the industry‑wide frenzy of blind capacity expansion has basically faded. A large number of small‑and‑medium‑sized plants produce homogeneous general‑purpose grades with outdated facilities, leading to longer inventory turnover cycles and lingering low‑price competition in the market. Leading enterprises no longer chase production‑scale expansion. Instead, they focus on technical renovation of existing production lines, optimize process stability and raise the output proportion of high‑end products. Driven by continuous implementation of environmental supervision, energy‑consumption constraints and dual‑carbon policies, backward production lines with poor environmental performance and excessive energy consumption are phased out step by step. Industrial resources keep concentrating on well‑managed market leaders with solid R&D strength. The localization drive in the fumed silica segment moves forward steadily. Multiple revamped domestic production lines achieve stable mass production with iterated product performance, reducing domestic reliance on imported premium materials.

　　The whole downstream market steps into a stock‑optimization cycle with obvious divergence across sub‑sectors. Overall demand of the traditional tire industry stays stable. Market competition forces tire manufacturers to continuously optimize formulations, and the application ratio of highly dispersible modified silica in premium green tires keeps rising, generating structural incremental demand. Markets for silicone sealants, coatings and conventional rubber products maintain steady rigid demand with limited overall growth potential. Emerging tracks such as photovoltaic energy storage, new‑energy power batteries and electronic thermally conductive materials retain sound growth momentum, setting higher technical standards for silica in purity, dispersibility and surface modification effects, alongside growing customized requirements. High‑value‑added fields including food, pharmaceuticals and daily chemicals impose strict market‑access thresholds, and compliance certifications become rigid competition prerequisites. A small number of domestic manufacturers with complete credentials keep reaping market dividends. Downstream purchasing patterns have also changed significantly. Major clients no longer simply compare quotations, but attach greater importance to long‑term supply stability, fast sample‑making capacity and supporting services for joint formulation development.

　　The export landscape keeps adjusting, and the global market has also stepped into stock‑based rivalry. Green trade rules overseas are increasingly refined, and carbon‑footprint verification together with low‑carbon product certifications are gradually turning into export necessities. The era for domestic low‑cost silica to seize overseas markets merely through low prices has come to an end. Continued capacity release in Southeast Asia further squeezes export profit margins of mid‑to‑low‑end products. High‑end modified silica gains recognition from a rising number of overseas new‑material manufacturers with stable quality and flexible customized solutions, delivering steady growth in export orders. Leading domestic enterprises begin to build overseas technical‑service systems, shifting from pure product sales to long‑term strategic cooperation and participating in early‑stage formulation development for downstream clients, so as to boost product added value and global competitiveness.

　　Service‑oriented manufacturing becomes a critical direction for industrial transformation. Qualified silica suppliers deliver far more than finished materials. They establish comprehensive application‑R&D platforms to assist customers with formulation adjustment, performance testing and solution iteration. Enterprises adopt intelligent automated production systems to strictly control every working procedure, guaranteeing highly consistent product performance across batches and lowering production fluctuation risks for downstream buyers. Green circular production processes are continuously put into practice. Industrial projects that produce silica from silicon‑containing solid waste keep moving toward commercialization, cutting manufacturing costs while satisfying domestic and international low‑carbon environmental standards and helping end‑products obtain green certifications. Reliable testing capacity, rapid sample delivery and flexible small‑batch customization services are gradually evolving into core evaluation criteria for major clients to select premium suppliers.

　　The fundamental competition rules of the industry have been reshaped. The extensive model that only competes on price and output is no longer sustainable. Future rivalry among enterprises focuses on integrated supply‑chain competence, customized R&D strength, eco‑friendly manufacturing standards and full‑cycle technical service capabilities. Market shares of leading enterprises with comprehensive competitive advantages will keep expanding. Small‑and‑medium‑sized manufacturers with single‑product portfolios, weak service systems and insufficient R&D investment will face shrinking operating space. Industrial consolidation and reshuffling will continue. The silica industry is undergoing a transformation from traditional chemical raw‑material manufacturing toward a new‑material technical‑service‑oriented business model.

　　Market outlook: China’s silica market will remain generally stable in the short run, and the structural divergence pattern will persist. Low‑end products face profit pressure while customized high‑end grades maintain firm market quotations. The traditional downstream manufacturing restocking cycle in the fourth quarter is expected to bring phased demand improvement, yet it is unlikely to trigger a sharp overall market rally. In the medium‑and‑long term, market growth mainly stems from structural opportunities brought by new‑energy sectors, photovoltaic industries and high‑end composite materials. Enterprises capable of providing continuous product modification, formulation development and complete technical solutions will secure long‑term value and stable profit margins amid stock‑market competition.