Entering September 2026, China’s fine‑chemical, new‑material and rubber‑plastic supporting industries have fully stepped into the recovery cycle of the traditional peak season known as Golden September. Operating rates across downstream application sectors are picking up steadily, and overall market sentiment is gradually warming up. Unlike previous peak seasons marked by a general rise in both trading volume and prices, the precipitated silica market this year features a distinct pattern of “a tepid peak season, stable overall volume and extreme structural divergence”. As raw‑material price fluctuations level off and the industry’s capacity to pass on production costs continues to weaken, the traditional profit‑making model that relied solely on raw‑material price swings has come to an end. Market competition rules have been completely reshaped, shifting from cost‑driven cyclical gains to comprehensive strengths including modification technology, consistent product quality, customized services and eco‑friendly manufacturing. Driven by the concentrated release of newly‑built and expanded capacities in recent years, the effective domestic capacity of precipitated silica has hit a historic high. Supply of general‑grade precipitated silica is extremely sufficient, social inventories keep accumulating, and low‑end homogeneous products trigger fierce price‑driven competition. The average profit across the sector is continuously squeezed. Lacking technical and quality advantages, small‑and‑medium manufacturers can only secure market share through price cuts, facing mounting operational pressure.

　　From the upstream cost perspective, core feedstock such as soda ash, quartz sand and industrial sulfuric acid fluctuate at low levels in the third quarter without sharp surges. Meanwhile, the volatility of energy supplies including coal, electricity and industrial steam remains limited and manageable. Compared with the high‑cost range in the first half of the year, production pressure has eased noticeably and the overall cost benchmark for manufacturers has moved downward. Nevertheless, this cost decline has not brought widespread profit improvements. The fundamental reason lies in the long‑standing overcapacity of general‑purpose precipitated silica. Ordinary industrial grades suffer from serious homogenization and high substitutability, giving downstream buyers strong bargaining power. Profit gains brought by cheaper raw materials are entirely offset by downstream price suppression and disorderly price competition among peers, so cost advantages cannot be converted into real corporate earnings. At present, conventional reinforcing precipitated silica has entered a phase of transparent costs, razor‑thin margins and low price flexibility. There is hardly any room for speculative trading, and the low‑end segment has fully entered an era of minimal‑profit competition.

　　Demand from traditional downstream markets stays moderately weak, with insufficient momentum to lift the whole industry. Tire producers launch autumn restocking as scheduled, yet the recovery of end‑vehicle consumption is slow and modest. Demand across the auto parts chain falls short of expectations, while overseas tire export orders are scattered and volatile. Leading tire manufacturers maintain a prudent strategy of low inventory, fast turnover and on‑demand replenishment. They only place small‑batch staggered orders instead of large‑scale stockpiling, generating limited pull‑through demand for rubber‑reinforcing precipitated silica. In addition, demand from mature traditional sectors such as ordinary silicone rubber, construction sealants, general industrial coatings, daily‑use chemical additives and shoe‑making rubber‑plastic materials has become saturated. The consumption speed of finished downstream products remains stable with no new incremental support. The ceiling for growth in traditional tracks has appeared, removing the core driving force for price increases of general‑grade precipitated silica, whose market trend stays weak and volatile.

　　In sharp contrast to the sluggish performance of traditional sectors, high‑end modified functional precipitated silica continues to deliver an independent strong market performance and acts as the core pillar supporting industrial profitability. Fueled by the rapid expansion of high‑end industries including new‑energy lithium batteries, photovoltaic energy storage, high‑end equipment manufacturing, precision electronics, biomedicine and premium weather‑resistant anti‑corrosion coatings, end‑products are evolving toward lightweight, weather‑stable, reliable and low‑energy‑consumption characteristics. Stringent customized standards are imposed on precipitated silica in terms of purity, dispersibility, pore structure, oil absorption value and hydrophobic compatibility. High‑end precipitated silica optimized through dedicated surface modification addresses long‑standing industrial drawbacks of conventional products, such as particle agglomeration, poor compatibility, insufficient temperature and weather resistance, and weak system adaptability. It is widely used in high‑value‑added scenarios including lithium‑battery separator coatings, electrolyte functional additives, photovoltaic sealants, electronic potting materials, medical carriers, food anti‑caking agents, premium matting coatings and high‑temperature‑resistant composite materials. These modified products feature high technical barriers, strict formulation thresholds, limited competitors and strong customization properties. Completely insulated from low‑end price wars, manufacturers retain strong pricing power with full order backlogs and stable delivery cycles, making them the most risk‑resistant and profitable niche segment in the current industry.

　　Structural upgrading in the export market becomes increasingly evident, with export focus shifting comprehensively from low‑end general‑purpose products to high‑end modified functional grades. Exports of conventional industrial precipitated silica face multiple headwinds including substitution by local overseas production capacity, international tariff barriers and low‑cost foreign competitors. Overseas inquiries keep declining and order growth stagnates, and export dividends for low‑end varieties gradually fade away. In contrast, high‑purity, low‑impurity and high‑dispersity specialty modified precipitated silica gains deep recognition from premium overseas clients across Europe, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America, thanks to stable batch consistency and controllable performance indicators tailored for sophisticated systems. Long‑term binding export orders increase steadily, and overseas revenue accounts for a rising share of total business, forming a core growth track for leading enterprises. Meanwhile, overseas purchasers keep raising requirements for low‑carbon production traceability, environmental compliance qualifications, product safety test reports and full‑process quality management systems, further pushing domestic players to abandon extensive production modes and accelerating the high‑end, refined and compliant industrial upgrading.

　　Domestic low‑carbon and environmental‑friendly policies are being fully implemented to speed up supply‑side structural reform. Chemical parks nationwide tighten standards for energy consumption control, wastewater, waste gas and solid waste discharge as well as workplace safety. Inefficient production lines characterized by high energy use, heavy pollution and outdated processes are subject to production limits, rectification or phase‑out. The exit of backward capacity picks up pace and the overall quality of market supply keeps improving. Industry leaders with core R&D capabilities, refined modification technologies and green production systems continuously optimize manufacturing workflows, cut unit consumption of energy and raw materials, enhance batch‑to‑batch product consistency and iterate customized modified products to meet differentiated demands from high‑end customers. They keep capturing mainstream mid‑to‑high‑end market share, and capacity, orders and profits are increasingly concentrated among premium leading manufacturers, lifting industrial concentration steadily.

　　Judging from the whole industrial chain for market outlook, the precipitated silica sector has bid farewell to the old cyclical and extensive pattern of synchronized price surges and drops, entering a brand‑new stage featuring structural divergence, performance gaps and the rule of the stronger. In the short run, burdened by overcapacity, high inventories and sluggish demand, conventional precipitated silica will maintain a narrow weak fluctuation with limited upward momentum and sustained profit pressure. Supported by long‑term track dividends from new‑energy, new‑material and high‑end manufacturing industries, high‑end modified functional precipitated silica enjoys robust demand, sufficient orders and stable quotations, building solid profit moats. In the medium‑to‑long term, industrial competition will break away from low‑end rivalry focused on production scale and price cuts. Core corporate competitiveness will lie in four major dimensions: formulation R&D capability, stable product performance, customized supporting services and green low‑carbon manufacturing standards. Industry reshuffling will deepen continuously, inefficient capacity will exit at an accelerated pace, and high‑end premium capacity will keep expanding. The precipitated silica industry will fully escape low‑price competition and steadily march toward high‑quality development featuring refinement, functionalization, customization and high added value.