As soon as new year's day passed, the price rise of silicone burst the circle of friends. The market was full of voices such as price rise, closing and shortage. DMC of some manufacturers rose continuously last Wednesday, and DMC returned to 30000 yuan / ton. Some other monomer factories raised their prices on Friday, and most of them did not accept orders. As of January 8, DMC market quoted 28500-30000 yuan / ton in a wide range, an increase of 11.85% in the week. At present, monomer factories generally say that inventory is low, DMC supply is tightened, businesses are reluctant to sell, and new production capacity is put into operation in the traditional off-season at the end of the year. However, the silicone market is still full of doubts, and it is soaring all the way with shortage.


With the Spring Festival holiday getting closer and closer, there was still about two weeks of trading time before the year. How long can this wave of silicone price rise last? It rose so much years ago. Is there room for it to rise after years? In fact, many manufacturers have no bottom in mind. The downstream is cautiously chasing up and hoarding goods, and the upstream is constantly trying to push up prices. On the whole, organic silicon basically rose before the year. Considering that the downstream terminals recovered slightly and could not withstand another round of sharp rise, it is hoped that the rise will slow down in 2022.


107 glue Market: last week, the mainstream quotation of 107 glue was 28500-28800 yuan / ton. However, due to the acceleration of the rise of DMC, the monomer factory 107 glue closed the order temporarily after a small amount of quotation was received on Tuesday, and the spot transaction price in the market increased significantly. At present, the scattered spot price of 107 glue is 29500-30500 yuan / ton, and the reluctance to sell surges. In the face of rising raw materials, the downstream has no choice but to buy again, The supply side further boosted confidence.


From the demand side, the manufacturers waiting to fall in the early stage have low raw material reserves. When they return on New Year's day, their mentality of waiting to fall and replenish has changed. They began to actively enter the preparation stage before the year, and the market trading atmosphere has improved again. With the active preparation of goods in the downstream, during the low-cost stage in the early stage, there are many large stores, there are abundant pre-sale orders from 107 rubber manufacturers, and the phenomenon of sealing and non connection is concentrated. At present, silicone rubber dealers, driven by the rising trend, also increase the volume of goods. If 107 rubber further rises this week, silicone rubber price increase letters are likely to fly in this winter.






On the whole, DMC price has formed a strong support for 107 glue market, the alliance resistance of downstream manufacturers to the rise of 107 glue has begun to divide, and the stock demand of some manufacturers has quietly increased. Therefore, in the short term, the continued strength of 107 glue has become a high probability event.


Silicone oil market: the price of domestic silicone oil market rose slightly last week. After the festival, the price of individual DMC rose by 4000 yuan / ton. The market was reluctant to sell. Silicone oil manufacturers had insufficient inventory and production was limited. Driven by tight supply and demand, the price of silicone oil rose to 33500-34000 yuan / ton, up 1250 yuan / ton during the week. Imported silicone oil: the production of Zhangjiagang unit resumed, the supply of silicone oil increased, and the price difference with domestic silicone oil narrowed after the price reduction. However, the recent domestic rising atmosphere is strong, and the agents are reluctant to sell, mainly receiving orders at high prices and small quantities. At present, the wide quotation of imported silicone oil is 38000-45000 yuan / ton.


On the demand side, the textile and daily chemical industry are still in a hurry, and the demand for silicone oil is generally acceptable. In addition, the imported silicone oil is high and out of stock in the early stage, the substitution effect of domestic silicone oil is obvious, and the order quantity is considerable. At present, most silicone oil manufacturers still have early foreign trade orders that have not been delivered. At the same time, near the end of the year, domestic downstream manufacturers also have a rigid demand for goods, so the demand for silicone oil has increased relatively.


In the future, with the rise of DMC and the further follow-up of silicone oil, the price difference between domestic silicone oil and imported materials is gradually narrowed, and the export high price orders may be affected. However, the epidemic abroad is repeated, the unit operating rate is unstable, the export demand of silicone oil is still optimistic, and the price increases with the cost.






Pyrolysis material Market: last week, we said that the pyrolysis material plant needs to bear the dormancy in the first half of 2022. Now, whenever new materials rise, the waste silica gel immediately rises, and the increase is fierce. At present, the quotation of waste silica gel to the pyrolysis material plant has risen to 12800-13000 yuan / ton (excluding tax); The cost of pyrolysis material is no different from that of hydrolyzed material. In the face of such unreasonable price, the pyrolysis material factory can not resist, so it can only be reluctant to sell high price. Due to the rapid rise of waste silica gel and the small supply of goods, the supply of cracking material manufacturers is also tight. Some large factories mainly focus on new materials, and the output of cracking material silicone oil and 107 rubber is less. Some cracking material factories simply reduce production for maintenance or take a holiday in advance.






Due to the limited amount of new materials, even if there is no price advantage for cracker silicone oil and 107 glue, the transaction is warmer than that in the early stage, but the business risk is large. Only when the new materials continue to rise can there be profit space. Once the rise of new materials stops, the high price shipment of cracker materials will be limited. In the short term, it is expected that the cracking material market will continue to rise driven by the strong strength of waste silica gel.


Raw rubber Market: after the festival, driven by the sharp rise in DMC, domestic raw rubber also made a good start. Due to the game of large high-temperature rubber manufacturers before the festival, the stock volume of most rubber mixing plants is not high. Driven by the rising atmosphere after the festival, the stock mood of rubber mixing plants is high. With the emergence of orders, raw rubber plants supply limited goods according to the usual order volume of customers. As far as we know, a small rubber mixer reported 2 trucks of raw rubber, and only 10 tons were approved. Today, some raw rubber factories offer 29500 yuan / ton.






Compound rubber Market: last week, DMC and raw rubber continued to rise and control the volume, which led to the rise of compound rubber price. Under the condition of active market trading, the manufacturer pulled up the market and came into being. Today, the quotation of compound rubber rose to 25500-26000 yuan / ton, and the profit recovered. At present, the supply of mixed rubber is stable before the Spring Festival. Due to the limited raw rubber, the mixed rubber is worried that the shortage of raw rubber after the Spring Festival will affect the construction, so it is active to replenish the stock and is reluctant to sell at a high price. Although the silicon products factory said that the orders had not fully recovered, the rising cost also led to the willingness of the downstream to accept the rise. Some large manufacturers placed orders before the year and picked up the goods after the year. In the short term, under the dual support of cost and demand, the rubber mix market is strong, and it is expected to further follow up the increase this week.


In summary, the bullish expectation of silicone is still strong, the upstream order arrangement is tight, and the shipment is slow. Under the influence of the bearish mentality of downstream enterprises, most manufacturers do not intend to prepare a large number of goods. Now they are faced with an empty raw material warehouse. On the one hand, from next week, the downstream terminals will have holidays one after another, and the demand will gradually cool down. There is still great uncertainty about whether the demand can be improved after the festival. On the other hand: according to the traditional practice, silicone raw materials have a "good start" at the peak of traditional demand after the Spring Festival. If you hesitate before the festival, you may be forced to purchase higher price raw materials after the festival. However, entanglement is entanglement. In the short term, the balance of the supply-demand game has shifted towards the supplier. With the limited preparation time and limited supply before the festival, enterprises that conflict with high prices in the early stage will begin to be forced to accept the current price.