In the mid‑to‑late third quarter of 2026, China’s new chemical material industry has stepped into a brand‑new transformation cycle. Policies including dual‑carbon governance, low‑carbon certification and export carbon footprint verification are fundamentally reshaping production logic and trading rules for the precipitated silica sector. Moving beyond the traditional market judgment merely based on supply‑demand fluctuations, current pricing is increasingly linked to manufacturing processes, energy consumption, carbon emissions and customized product capabilities, leading to more diversified and sophisticated industrial competition. Entering September, downstream manufacturers have gradually kicked off fourth‑quarter stock preparation with improving trading sentiment. Nevertheless, the core competition focus has shifted toward green production capacity, consistent product quality and high‑end formula supporting services.

　　Cost divergence on the upstream raw‑material side continues to widen profit gaps among manufacturers. Sodium silicate, the core feedstock, maintains an adequate overall supply. However, energy‑consumption differences caused by varied production processes are re‑evaluated under relevant policies. Green factories adopting waste‑heat recovery and recycled‑water utilization enjoy lower comprehensive production costs. Driven by operating rates of domestic fertilizer plants and regional environmental production limits, sulfuric acid prices fluctuate periodically, squeezing profit margins for small‑and‑medium‑sized precipitated silica producers. Energy costs account for a growing proportion of total expenditure. The price gap between thermal power and green power grants long‑term competitive advantages to large‑scale plants equipped with renewable power, while survival pressure keeps mounting for low‑end high‑energy‑consumption production lines.

　　From the perspective of operating rates and inventory structure, China boasts a large overall capacity base, yet high‑quality effective capacity remains relatively scarce. Production lines for ordinary precipitated silica operate at high levels with rising social inventory and sufficient circulating supplies, leaving prices lacking upward momentum. In contrast, constrained by formula technologies, specialized equipment and quality‑control systems, many enterprises expand high‑end functional product capacity at a slow pace. Delivery cycles of modified precipitated silica for photovoltaic sealants, power‑battery supporting materials and premium green tires are extended, with certain grades staying in short supply over a long period. Instead of simply comparing prices, an increasing number of downstream buyers prioritize suppliers with complete carbon‑footprint reports and stable batch consistency.

　　Demand stratification in downstream application markets becomes more pronounced. The tire industry keeps transforming toward low‑rolling‑resistance and highly wear‑resistant eco‑friendly products. Original equipment manufacturers keep raising material access thresholds, forcing tire makers to adopt higher‑performance precipitated silica and gradually phasing out low‑end reinforcing fillers. Markets for coatings, silicone rubber and adhesives show dual‑track development. Mass‑market civilian formulas continue to control raw‑material procurement costs, while high‑end anti‑corrosion, weather‑resistant and electronic flame‑retardant formulas are willing to pay premium prices for high‑quality modified precipitated silica. The new‑energy sector remains the strongest growth driver of the industry. Capacity expansion in photovoltaic, energy‑storage, lithium‑battery and thermal‑interface‑material fields continuously generates incremental demand and boosts sales of hydrophobic, low‑impurity and high‑purity precipitated silica.

　　Rule changes in foreign‑trade markets serve as a critical variable affecting industrial trends. With the continuous implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, overseas purchasers require full‑life‑cycle carbon‑emission data at the inquiry stage. Domestic ordinary precipitated silica without low‑carbon certifications loses competitiveness in the European market. Emerging markets in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and other regions register steady demand growth and absorb a large volume of export orders for general‑grade products. High‑end markets in Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States prefer customized modified products, and domestic premium precipitated silica is accelerating the substitution of overseas brands. Domestic enterprises with complete compliance documents and low‑carbon production qualifications achieve a year‑on‑year rise in overseas order proportion, and export businesses deliver markedly better profitability compared with low‑end domestic sales.

　　Industrial upgrading and technological iteration are reshaping the long‑term development path of the sector. Domestic leading enterprises keep increasing R&D investment in fumed silica, surface‑hydrophobic modified products and special functional fillers, steadily narrowing the performance gap with overseas high‑end counterparts. Meanwhile, green transformation of production processes has become a mandatory task for manufacturers. Technical renovation projects such as closed‑loop wastewater recycling, waste‑heat recovery and resource‑oriented by‑product recovery have been successively launched. Future new capacity will strictly focus on high‑end and low‑carbon development. The era of extensive capacity expansion has come to an end, backward production capacity will exit the market at an accelerated pace, and industrial concentration will be further improved.

　　Based on a comprehensive market outlook judgment, the domestic precipitated silica market will continue to witness a structural differentiation pattern in the next two months. Restricted by overcapacity, ordinary precipitated silica lacks upward price momentum and enterprises maintain low profitability. High‑end modified precipitated silica with low‑carbon attributes and superior performance maintains firm prices and considerable profit margins, supported by new‑energy and overseas high‑end orders. In the medium and long run, low‑carbon trade policies and the localization wave of downstream new materials will continuously drive industrial transformation and upgrading. Precipitated silica manufacturers that achieve low‑cost, low‑emission and high‑performance production will secure a more favorable position in the global market.