In September 2026, China’s fine chemical and new‑material market sees steady recovery. As a core filler for rubber reinforcement, coating matting, silicone modification and new‑energy composite materials, the silica sector hits a quarterly demand turning point. Supported by the steady rise in the operating rate of domestic manufacturing, accelerated capacity expansion of new‑material industries and the concentrated return of overseas purchasing orders, trading sentiment across the silica market keeps improving. Unlike the previous broad‑based market rallies in past peak seasons, the silica market this year presents a four‑dimensional divergent pattern featuring stratified demand, stratified pricing, stratified enterprises and stratified products. Conventional general‑purpose products face inventory pressure and slim profits, while high‑end functional products are in short supply with strong price resilience. The industry has officially stepped away from capacity‑scale competition and fully entered a brand‑new development stage focused on technological and quality competition.

　　From the perspective of raw‑material cost trends, prices of soda ash, sodium silicate, industrial steam and electricity show mild fluctuations in the third quarter. No sharp rises or falls are seen in raw‑material costs, forming a relatively stable cost foundation for the silica market. Cost pressure is no longer the core factor driving market price changes. Product structure and downstream adaptability have become the key determinants of corporate profitability. The mature manufacturing process of conventional precipitated silica comes with low technical barriers. Massive existing capacity continues to release, keeping market supply loose for a long time. In traditional fields such as civil rubber, ordinary shoe materials and low‑end plastic products, products are highly substitutable and downstream buyers hold strong bargaining power. As a result, general‑grade silica has long been trapped in a dilemma of high volume yet low profit where expanded output fails to generate higher earnings. In contrast, leading enterprises equipped with surface modification, ultra‑high‑purity purification and precise classification capabilities avoid vicious low‑price competition in the low‑end market. Relying on differentiated products, they secure high‑value downstream clients and maintain industry‑leading profit margins.

　　Structural upgrading in downstream end‑user demand serves as the fundamental driving force reshaping the silica industry landscape. The ongoing transformation and upgrading of traditional domestic manufacturing push low‑end rubber and plastic capacities to relocate overseas or reduce output. Growth of traditional silica consumption scenarios slows down and demand tends to saturate, which can no longer fuel overall industrial growth. The rapid rise of emerging sectors including new‑energy industries, high‑end equipment, precision manufacturing, electronic appliances and energy‑saving environmental protection unlocks brand‑new growth potential for silica. In the green‑tire sector, the continuous implementation of national fuel‑consumption standards and upgraded specifications for new‑energy‑vehicle supporting tires makes low‑rolling‑resistance, high‑wear‑resistance and high‑tear‑strength tires the mainstream of the industry. Tire manufacturers are forced to largely replace traditional reinforcement systems. The penetration rate of high‑dispersion, high‑resilience and low‑hysteresis silica keeps climbing, making it the largest growth track of the industry. In the silicone‑material sector, capacity expansion of photovoltaic adhesives, electronic sealants and silicone rubber for new‑energy cables greatly raises quality requirements for reinforcing fumed silica and modified precipitated silica. Demand for high‑purity, low‑volatility and high‑dispersion premium powder continues to surge. Meanwhile, the refined upgrading of industrial coatings, anti‑corrosion coatings, leather matting materials as well as food and pharmaceutical carriers generates sustained rigid demand for functional silica, maintaining a tight supply‑demand balance for high‑end grades.

　　Upgrades in policy supervision and green compliance systems further accelerate industrial reshuffling. Since the start of this year, regular and refined environmental inspections, energy‑consumption control and work‑safety audits have been carried out nationwide. Stricter regulatory standards have been rolled out for wastewater discharge, solid‑waste disposal and energy consumption during precipitated‑silica production. Many small‑and‑medium‑sized production units with outdated facilities, incomplete environmental‑protection supporting systems, excessive energy consumption and insufficient technical‑renovation capacity face restricted operating rates. Backward inefficient capacities in some regions regularly cut or halt production, driving the phase‑out of ineffective industrial capacity. Meanwhile, global green trade barriers keep tightening. Carbon‑footprint accounting, low‑carbon production certifications and environmental‑compliance qualifications have become mandatory thresholds for silica exports. Low‑end production capacities without compliance credentials completely lose access to overseas markets. High‑quality production capacity and premium downstream orders keep concentrating on leading enterprises with advanced technologies, low‑carbon production processes and complete qualification certificates, steadily lifting industrial market concentration.

　　The structure of the export market continues to optimize, and the global competitiveness of domestic high‑end silica improves significantly. Against the backdrop of global supply‑chain restructuring, China’s silica export landscape has undergone a fundamental shift. The old export model relying on low‑priced general‑purpose products to seize market share has been eliminated. High‑value‑added products such as hydrophobically modified silica, high‑dispersion silica and ultra‑pure fumed silica have become major export commodities. The steady development of infrastructure, rubber‑processing and tire industries in emerging markets across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Latin America delivers stable basic growth for Chinese silica exporters. High‑end markets in Europe, America, Japan and South Korea prioritize high‑quality, low‑energy‑consumption and traceable compliant products. Domestic leading enterprises capture more import‑substitution market share with reliable quality‑control systems, low‑carbon production technologies and customized service packages. Average export prices trend upward steadily with expanding profit margins in foreign trade.

　　Industrial technological iteration speeds up, with refinement, customization and grade‑specific performance becoming core development trends. Competition in the silica sector has long moved beyond simple capacity rivalry, evolving into comprehensive competition covering formula development, surface‑modification technologies, application‑oriented solutions and consistent supply services. Major leading enterprises keep boosting R&D investment, developing proprietary grades for different downstream scenarios to meet differentiated demands from segmented markets such as green tires, electronic materials, photovoltaic accessories, high‑end coatings and biomedicine. They keep addressing core downstream performance pain points including wear resistance, anti‑aging properties, anti‑settling performance, thermal insulation and resistance to extreme temperatures. At the same time, innovations in low‑carbon manufacturing technologies move forward on all fronts. Water recycling, by‑product recovery and energy‑saving processes are widely adopted, transforming the industry from high‑energy‑intensive extensive production to eco‑friendly, efficient and refined manufacturing, consolidating the foundation for long‑term development.

　　Judging from the overall industrial situation, demand dividends from the traditional September peak season will continue to release, further solidifying the divergent market pattern of silica. In the short run, sufficient supply and fierce competition keep prices of general‑grade silica stable at a low level with limited room for profit recovery. High‑end functional and modified specialty silica enjoys tight supply‑demand dynamics, firm prices and sufficient orders, acting as the core profit pillar of the industry. In the medium‑to‑long term, the trends of capacity elimination, structural upgrading and technological iteration in the silica sector will not reverse. Low‑end inefficient capacities will keep exiting the market, and industrial resources will further gather around leading enterprises. The industry will completely bid farewell to extensive scale‑oriented competition and fully embrace a new era of high‑quality development driven by technology, superior quality, low‑carbon compliance and customized services.