Entering September, China’s chemical sector has fully emerged from the demand slump caused by high‑temperature production restrictions in summer. Both precipitated and fumed silica markets have officially stepped into the traditional stock‑up window of the “Golden September and Silver October” peak season. Downstream manufacturers including tire producers, silicone rubber processors, coating and ink factories, composite material enterprises and electronic packaging material suppliers have successively released purchasing orders. Overall market trading activity has risen sharply compared with August. Nevertheless, this seasonal market recovery has not brought about a broad‑based price surge across all product grades. Structural divergence within the industry has further intensified, with market value continuously shifting toward high‑end customized products. Mass‑market general‑purpose products remain trapped in cut‑throat price competition amid overcapacity, widening profit gaps among manufacturers. Conventional industrial‑grade silica is still impacted by concentrated new capacity releases across China. Market supply remains abundant while downstream buyers adopt a cautious procurement strategy of purchasing only for immediate consumption. Prices stay volatile at a low level for a long time. Small‑and‑medium‑sized manufacturers face squeezed profit margins. Many factories maintain operating rates merely to average down production costs. In contrast, high‑dispersion, hydrophobically modified and ultra‑high‑purity specialty silica for green tires, high‑performance sealants, thermally conductive electronic fillers and pharmaceutical carriers enjoy sufficient order backlogs. Downstream customers extend order‑locking cycles, and delivery times for certain tight‑supply specifications are prolonged. Leading enterprises with technological barriers retain strong pricing power over premium product lines, which serve as the core driving force boosting corporate revenue and profit growth.

　　From the perspective of upstream raw materials and production costs, sodium silicate, soda ash, industrial electricity, coal and steam expenses remain the decisive factors widening profit disparities among different manufacturers. China’s dual‑control policies over energy consumption and low‑carbon regulations keep being implemented, imposing stricter operating constraints on high‑energy‑consuming traditional precipitated silica production lines. Older production facilities suffer greatly reduced operational flexibility. Leading enterprises with self‑owned mines, captive power plants and complete vertically integrated industrial chains possess unique cost advantages in raw material procurement and energy consumption. They can sustain stable profitability even during market downturns. By comparison, small‑and‑medium‑sized manufacturers fully rely on external raw material supplies and face high energy procurement costs. Their survival pressure becomes increasingly severe amid homogeneous price wars. Sustained losses force a batch of inefficient and backward production capacities to gradually exit market competition. Driven by the global carbon‑control wave, green process upgrades and complete full‑life‑cycle carbon footprint accounting have gradually become mandatory entry requirements for export orders. A growing number of overseas buyers include carbon emission data and environmental compliance credentials into supplier evaluation standards. Domestic silica manufacturers have to invest capital in low‑carbon technical renovation of production lines, optimize wastewater and waste residue recycling processes, and develop low‑carbon product portfolios to secure overseas market shares. Environmental expenses and carbon‑management costs are evolving into long‑term fixed expenditures for the industry, further raising market entry barriers for new participants.

　　The divergence in end‑user downstream demand is highly evident. The recovery of traditional ordinary rubber goods and low‑end civilian tire markets remains moderate. Downstream factories maintain low inventory levels, adopting a procurement strategy of small‑batch and high‑frequency restocking rather than large‑scale stockpiling. In contrast, the low‑rolling‑resistance green tire sector supporting new‑energy vehicles maintains steady long‑term growth. Major tire manufacturers keep expanding capacity for high‑performance tires, directly driving robust rigid demand for high‑dispersion silica, which acts as the core growth engine of the silica market. After the previous round of inventory destocking across the silicone industry chain, operating rates of silicone sealant and high‑temperature vulcanized silicone rubber manufacturers keep rebounding, resulting in a month‑on‑month increase in purchases of nano‑silica for reinforcement. Demand for functional modified silica in coatings, inks and leather matting applications continues to expand. Special powders with matte, anti‑settling, wear‑resistant and weather‑resistant properties create new growth tracks. In new‑energy, energy‑storage and semiconductor advanced‑material fields, fumed silica is rapidly gaining market demand as a thermally conductive insulating and anti‑caking additive, opening entirely new growth space for the industry. Continuous diversification of downstream application scenarios pushes silica manufacturers to shift from simply selling powder raw materials toward providing customized modification solutions tailored to customer formulation requirements. Value‑added service capabilities are gradually developing into core corporate competitiveness.

　　Overseas exports remain a key pillar sustaining stable growth of China’s silica industry. China’s overall silica export volume maintains a double‑digit year‑on‑year increase this year. Export prices of high‑end modified products keep climbing, while imports of premium grades keep declining, reflecting accelerating domestic substitution. Rapid development of infrastructure and tire industries in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East and South America generates robust purchasing orders for silica. The European Union market, affected by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, sees overseas buyers tending to select leading domestic suppliers with low‑carbon certifications and full compliance qualifications. The extensive export model relying merely on low prices to seize overseas orders has completely lost its effectiveness, and the living space for low‑priced products in global markets keeps shrinking. The latest semi‑annual financial reports released by international chemical giants also verify major shifts in industry logic. Future global market competition will no longer focus solely on production‑scale and low‑price advantages. Targeted product‑development capabilities, customized formulation solutions and a comprehensive global compliance system will become critical levers for enterprises to break through market competition. Technological value will replace production‑capacity value.

　　In terms of short‑term market outlook, the phased downstream restocking activity in September will last for a period. General‑purpose silica grades have limited room for upward price adjustment and will remain stable, while high‑end specially modified products will maintain firm prices against a tight supply‑demand balance. From a medium‑to‑long‑term industrial‑cycle perspective, capacity reshuffling across the industry will continue to move forward. High‑energy‑consuming and low‑value‑added backward capacities will accelerate their phase‑out. Industrial resources and high‑quality orders will keep concentrating on leading competitive enterprises. China’s silica industry has officially bid farewell to the previous development stage featuring extensive capacity expansion and vicious price competition, embarking on a comprehensive structural‑transformation cycle oriented toward differentiated formulation customization, eco‑friendly low‑carbon production and high‑value‑added product research and development. Manufacturers that master core modification technologies, complete overseas compliance certification systems and stable high‑quality supply capabilities will secure leading positions in the new round of global market competition and continuously expand the global growth space for domestic high‑end silica in the advanced‑material marketplace.