At the end of August 2026, China’s overall chemical market remains in the summer off‑season cycle. High‑temperature weather suppresses operating loads of downstream sectors such as rubber products, sealants and coatings. Coupled with production constraints brought by energy‑consumption control, downstream customers generally adopt low‑inventory operation, and on‑demand purchasing becomes mainstream. As the traditional Golden‑September consumption peak draws near, the market is shrouded in strong wait‑and‑see sentiment. Most enterprises stay cautious. Despite restocking expectations, no obvious recovery is observed in end‑use consumption. The silica industry has stepped out of the scale‑driven expansion phase. Market contradictions are mainly reflected in product‑structure discrepancies. Ordinary general‑purpose precipitated silica is trapped in sluggish demand, inventory accumulation and continuous profit squeeze. By contrast, modified silica applied in new‑energy tires, silicone compounds, photovoltaic supporting parts and electronic materials boasts strong demand resilience and serves as the core growth driver of the industry. Interactions among raw‑material costs, capacity iteration, downstream industrial upgrading and overseas carbon‑trade rules keep reshaping the industrial competitive landscape.

  In the upstream raw‑material segment, restricted by plant maintenance and energy‑consumption quota control, sodium silicate, the core feedstock for precipitated silica, sees limited effective supply release and maintains high prices, providing strong cost support for finished products. The sulfuric‑acid market is sufficiently supplied. Nevertheless, downstream fertilizer sectors enter the demand off‑season with reduced purchasing volume and low‑level fluctuating prices, which partially offsets cost increases caused by sodium silicate. Summer power‑consumption peaks push up industrial electricity expenditure and further raise overall production costs. For numerous domestic small‑and‑medium‑sized manufacturers, raw‑material and energy costs rise simultaneously, and profit margins of general‑purpose grades keep shrinking. Some enterprises voluntarily cut plant operating rates to prevent low‑price goods from flowing into the spot market and avoid loss risks. No drastic ups‑and‑downs occur in raw‑material markets, yet a solid cost base delivers firm underpinning for silica quotations.

  On the supply side, the overall operating rate of domestic precipitated silica stays at 70‑72%. The industry boasts huge total capacity, while obvious divergence exists among enterprises. Backed by sufficient long‑term orders, leading enterprises maintain stable plant operation and continuously advance product‑mix upgrading. They reduce output of low‑value‑added general rubber‑grade silica and divert more capacities toward high‑dispersion and surface‑modified special‑purpose products. Suffering dual pressures of rising costs and vicious low‑price competition, small‑and‑medium‑sized enterprises flexibly adjust operating rates according to market conditions. They prioritize order delivery for long‑term clients and voluntarily reduce spot‑market shipments. Few new‑capacity projects build conventional general‑purpose production lines; most new projects target high‑value‑added tracks including new‑energy tires, organosilicon sealing products and electronic auxiliary materials. Inventory divergence remains prominent. General‑purpose grades for tire filling and common rubber applications hold medium‑to‑high inventory, bringing heavy de‑stocking pressure. Modified silica for new‑energy and photovoltaic‑energy‑storage sectors is in tight supply, and order backlogs of many manufacturers extend to mid‑to‑late September. The fumed‑silica market also shows divergent performance. Ordinary hydrophilic grades face fierce competition with sideways price fluctuations, while high‑end grades for electronic and photovoltaic adhesives are supply‑constrained by organosilicon monomers and enjoy remarkable market bargaining power.

  Downstream end‑users witness a pattern of weak real‑time demand alongside rising peak‑season expectations. Tires remain the largest consumption field of silica. Domestic tire enterprises maintain operating rates of 72‑77%. Downstream factories mainly implement purchase‑on‑demand strategies without large‑scale centralized stock‑building. The traditional replacement‑tire market is dominated by stock‑based demand with limited short‑term increments. Continuous expansion of green tires for new‑energy‑vehicle applications steadily boosts demand for high‑dispersion silica. Downstream buyers keep raising standards for impurity control, batch consistency and carbon‑footprint indicators, which acts as an important growth driver for the tire segment. Silicone rubber and sealants feature strong anti‑fluctuation capability. Sustained order releases of photovoltaic‑energy‑storage‑supporting adhesives drive stable consumption of reinforcing silica. Traditional sectors such as coatings, feed additives and daily‑chemicals see stable demand with limited new orders, dominated by stock‑based competition. Approaching September, only a small number of downstream enterprises carry out small‑batch tentative stock‑up. Most market participants adopt a wait‑and‑see attitude, and large‑scale restocking has not materialized.

  The export pattern keeps restructuring with both opportunities and challenges. General‑purpose silica products are impacted by overseas local‑capacity release and multi‑country competitors. Overseas buyers show obvious price‑suppression tendency, and export difficulties for ordinary grades keep increasing. Benefiting from stable product quality, high‑dispersion modified special‑purpose silica achieves steady growth in overseas orders. Relevant overseas carbon‑border‑trade policies keep rolling out. Importers continuously raise review standards for carbon footprint, production traceability and compliance documents. Enterprises without green‑process upgrading face markedly mounting export obstacles. The survival space for the former low‑price‑high‑volume export model keeps shrinking. Enterprises with completed low‑carbon renovation and sound carbon‑accounting systems gain growing overseas competitive advantages. Export competition has evolved from simple price rivalry into comprehensive‑strength competition covering product quality, carbon‑management capabilities and customized services.

  From the perspective of enterprise operation, profit divergence within the industry intensifies further. SMEs focusing on general‑purpose grades mostly operate on slim profits and face loss‑making pressure in certain periods under dual squeeze from rising costs and vicious low‑price competition. Enterprises engaged in high‑end modified‑product business maintain favorable profitability relying on technical accumulation and tight market supply. The proportion of R&D investment across the whole industry rises steadily. More enterprises deploy businesses in emerging downstream tracks, optimize product portfolios and reduce the proportion of low‑end businesses. Industrial reshuffling moves forward steadily. Small‑and‑medium‑sized capacities lacking technical reserves and competent cost‑control capabilities are under mounting survival pressure, and the phase‑out pace of backward capacities accelerates moderately.

  Market outlook: the off‑season effect will persist in the short run, and quotations for general‑purpose silica grades maintain weak‑stable performance. Solid cost support limits downside risks; recovery of real downstream demand is slow, peak‑season expectations have not been fulfilled, upward driving force is insufficient, and the probability of sharp price swings is low. Supported by demand from new‑energy and organosilicon tracks, high‑end modified special‑purpose grades keep firm market sentiment, and some short‑supplied grades enjoy premium space. After entering September, close attention shall be paid to production‑recovery strength and actual restocking scale of tire, rubber‑goods and sealant manufacturers, as well as continuity of overseas orders and release rhythm of new high‑end special‑purpose capacities. In the medium‑and‑long‑term perspective, energy‑consumption control, environmental‑protection supervision and overseas carbon‑trade barriers will keep phasing out backward capacities. Industrial competition is no longer merely about capacity scale. Modification technologies, cost‑control competence and full‑chain green‑manufacturing capabilities become core competitive factors. The major trend of value‑oriented and specialized transformation for the silica industry will keep advancing.