On Thursday, the silicone market was still immersed in the upsurge of price rise. Driven by the raw material DMC, silicone oil and 107 glue also set off a new round of price rise. After the DMC of some manufacturers quoted 27600 yuan / ton, it is expected to start the five-day maintenance on Wednesday. Therefore, the pre-sale orders in the early stage are optimistic, and the major monomer manufacturers have more confidence in supporting the price and are reluctant to sell. For the downstream, I originally wanted to copy the bottom of the wave and wait for the price rise and appreciation after the year. Unexpectedly, the rise was advanced and accelerated, resulting in the reduction of the bullish range of the downstream after the year and the reduction of the stock volume.


Silicone oil and 107 glue: from the supply side, DMC rose again this week, and the supply was in short supply. Under the support of cost, silicone oil and 107 glue actively followed up the increase. This week, the mainstream quotation of domestic silicone oil market is 33000 ~ 34000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation of 107 glue is 27300 ~ 27500 yuan / ton. At present, there are still pre orders for silicone oil and 107 glue from monomer factories, while other small and medium-sized silicone oil and 107 glue factories are limited by DMC, Take orders carefully due to low inventory. In terms of imported materials, with the restart of Zhangjiagang plant, the supply of foreign enterprises has increased, and the price has also decreased, but the agents are reluctant to sell driven by the domestic rising atmosphere. Overall, the supply of silicone oil and 107 glue is still tight.


Cracker silicone oil and 107 glue: Recently, we have been paying attention to the upside down phenomenon between cracker and new material. At present, it is difficult to alleviate. Driven by another round of rise in new material, not only waste silica gel recyclers, but also product factories are reluctant to sell at a high level. The quotation is followed up again. At present, the quotation of waste silica gel rough edge to cracker factory has risen to 11800-12000 yuan / ton, compared with the tax price of new material 107 glue of 27300 yuan / ton, The price of cracking material 107 glue excluding tax is 26000-26500 yuan / ton, which is significantly higher than that of new material. In the short term, due to the tight supply of new materials, the current trading of high priced cracking materials is relatively smooth. In the medium term, the increase of waste silica gel has been too much ahead, the profit of cracking material plant is stretched, the mentality of resistance to goods preparation is strong, and the waste silica gel will rise again or there is no market.


Demand side: the downstream is expected to rise again after the festival, so covering positions is relatively positive, but a large number of covering positions are relatively cautious because the increase is higher than expected. Due to the early Chinese new year this year, the holiday of downstream terminals will gradually start after mid January, and the trading time before the year is running out. In mid January, Hubei plant is expected to resume restart, and the new capacity is also being released, which inevitably leads to the risk aversion mentality of some operators.






Generally speaking, at present, the monomer factory has a stable mentality and small inventory. At the current price, if it can prepare an appropriate amount of goods before the year, it will prepare some goods. If it increases by 12000 next week, it may overdraw the increase after the year, and the high risk coefficient of goods preparation will increase.