Entering late August 2026, China’s chemical powder‑material market is trapped in the summer off‑season cycle. Operating rates of end‑user manufacturing industries decline and overall market transactions remain cautious. The silica industry is undergoing profound pattern restructuring. Cost pressure keeps passing downstream, downstream application scenarios keep upgrading, coupled with changes in export‑market rules and capacity‑structure adjustments. The gaps among industry participants keep widening. The market has bid farewell to the old mode of universal price rise or fall, and structural market trends have become the mainstream feature.

  In terms of upstream raw materials, affected by equipment maintenance and energy‑consumption control, sodium silicate supply stays tight and prices remain at relatively high levels, continuously delivering cost support for precipitated silica. The sulfuric‑acid market enjoys sufficient overall supply. Nevertheless, downstream fertilizer and metallurgy sectors enter their traditional off‑seasons with weak purchasing demand, keeping sulfuric‑acid prices fluctuating at low levels and partially offsetting cost increases brought by sodium silicate. Industrial electricity consumption peaks in summer. Energy‑consumption costs constitute a considerable expenditure for manufacturers and further squeeze profit margins of general‑purpose grades. For small‑and‑medium‑sized factories, overlapping costs of raw materials and energy consumption keep eroding profits of ordinary silica products. Some enterprises have to reduce operating loads or suspend production temporarily to avoid risks. Overall, raw‑material prices avoid drastic surges or slumps, yet high comprehensive production costs set strong price floors for finished goods.

  On the supply side, the overall operating rate of domestic precipitated silica remains at 70‑74%. Backed by long‑term contracts, large‑scale leading enterprises maintain stable plant operation, proactively adjust product mix, cut output of low‑profit general rubber‑grade silica and increase production proportion of high‑dispersion and surface‑modified grades. Faced with dual pressures of vicious low‑price competition and rising costs, small‑and‑medium‑sized enterprises show flexible and volatile operating rates. Many reduce spot‑market supply and prioritize order delivery for long‑term clients. Newly‑added capacities avoid blind expansion of general‑purpose products. Most new projects target high‑value‑added tracks such as new‑energy tires, organosilicon sealing materials and electronic auxiliary materials. Inventory differentiation is prominent. General tire‑grade and rubber‑filling grades register moderately‑high inventory with certain de‑stocking pressure. By contrast, modified silica for new‑energy and photovoltaic materials is in tight supply, and order backlogs of many manufacturers extend to mid‑to‑late September. Similar differentiation exists in fumed silica markets. Ordinary hydrophilic grades face fierce competition and sideways quotations, while high‑end grades dedicated to electronic and photovoltaic adhesives remain short‑supplied due to organosilicon‑monomer constraints and possess strong bargaining power.

  Downstream application sectors display obvious divergence. As the largest consumer of silica, domestic tire enterprises maintain operating rates of 74‑79%. Market participants adopt purchase‑on‑demand strategies and avoid large‑scale stock‑building. Demand in the traditional replacement‑tire market stays sluggish with limited incremental potential. Green tires for new‑energy‑vehicle supporting applications maintain sound growth, steadily boosting demand for high‑dispersion silica while imposing stricter requirements on impurity indicators and product stability, becoming the most important growth driver for the tire segment. Silicone rubber and sealant industries feature strong demand resilience. Expanding adhesive output for photovoltaic energy‑storage and new‑energy supporting scenarios steadily lifts demand for reinforcing silica. Traditional fields including coatings, feed additives and daily‑chemical sectors show weak purchasing willingness and slow procurement rhythms amid the off‑season, dominated by stock‑based competition.

  In foreign‑trade exports, overseas demand presents two‑way divergence. General‑purpose grades encounter fierce competition from local overseas capacities and supplies from other countries, leading to mounting export pressure. High‑dispersion modified special grades keep generating growing overseas orders thanks to stable quality. Continuous implementation of overseas carbon‑related trade rules raises importers’ requirements for product carbon footprint and production traceability, compelling domestic manufacturers to accelerate green‑production transformation. Profit space for the old low‑price‑oriented export model keeps shrinking. Enterprises with complete carbon‑accounting systems and green processes gain rising competitive advantages in overseas markets. Export competition is gradually shifting toward product quality and comprehensive service capabilities.

  From the perspective of enterprise operation, profit divergence within the industry becomes more striking. Small‑and‑medium‑sized manufacturers focusing on general‑purpose grades are squeezed by rising costs and market price competition, mostly hovering around slim‑profit or loss‑making margins. Enterprises engaged in high‑end modified‑product business secure sound profitability relying on technical barriers and tight supply. More enterprises increase R&D investment, explore emerging downstream tracks, optimize product portfolios and reduce dependence on low‑end markets. Industrial reshuffling speeds up, and small‑and‑medium‑sized capacities lacking technical and cost advantages face mounting survival pressure.

  Market outlook: in the short run, restrained by off‑season demand, quotations for general‑purpose silica grades maintain weak‑stable performance. Raw‑material and energy‑consumption costs limit downside risks, while insufficient demand rules out sharp price hikes. Supported by sustained demand from new‑energy and organosilicon downstream sectors, high‑end modified special grades keep firm market sentiment, and some tight‑supply grades still enjoy premium space. Upon arrival of the traditional peak season in September, market participants will closely track production‑recovery performance of tire, rubber‑goods and sealant manufacturers, as well as sustainability of export orders and release rhythm of new special‑grade capacities. In the medium‑and‑long term, costs, environmental‑protection policies and carbon‑control measures will keep reshaping the industry landscape, and backward capacities will gradually phase out. Instead of merely competing for production‑capacity scale, enterprises will compete in modification technologies, cost‑control capabilities and green‑manufacturing standards. The structural‑differentiation pattern of the silica industry will continue to evolve.