Mid-August in the sweltering summer still keeps China’s chemical industry trapped in the traditional off-season cycle. Downstream end users including rubber goods manufacturers, architectural coating factories and rubber-plastic auxiliary producers show generally weak purchasing willingness. Most enterprises adopt a conservative operation strategy of purchasing only as needed and keeping inventory tightly controlled. In contrast to the uniform market trend of industry-wide price cuts and inventory liquidation every summer in previous years, the cyclical features of the silica market have faded significantly in 2026, the boundary between peak and off seasons has blurred, and the tiered development pattern has become increasingly solid. Supply and demand for conventional precipitated silica used in tires and industrial rubber hoses remain balanced with mild price fluctuations. High-end fumed silica tailored for photovoltaic sealants, lithium battery diaphragm protection and precision electronic components stays in tight supply with firm and rising quotations. Low-carbon silica manufactured via agricultural and forestry solid waste recycling continues to receive steady overseas orders thanks to its low-carbon certification advantages, optimizing foreign trade structure continuously. Industrial competition has completely shifted from output scale rivalry to comprehensive competition covering low-carbon processes, customized modification and adaptive application across multiple fields.
According to the latest market survey statistics dated August 15, the average ex-factory price of mainstream domestic industrial-grade precipitated silica stands steadily at 6,000 CNY per ton, with an overall fluctuation margin of less than 2% in early August and a smooth operating trend. Price divergence among segmented varieties is prominent: ordinary rubber-reinforcing silica is priced between 5,780 and 6,220 CNY per ton, mainly supplied for traditional commercial vehicle tires, transmission belts and ordinary sealing parts with sluggish trading volumes. Demand for high-dispersion modified silica applied to quiet, low rolling-resistance tires of new energy vehicles rises steadily, pushing its market quotation up to 6,350–6,720 CNY per ton. High-purity precipitated silica dedicated to anti-caking uses in food & pharmaceuticals and dental abrasives is barely affected by periodic swings, maintaining a stable market price of roughly 6,500 CNY per ton.Price tiers for fumed silica are clearer: domestic general hydrophobic fumed silica sells for 20.2–23.6 CNY per kilogram. Ultra-fine modified fumed silica exclusively for photovoltaic and energy storage adhesives is in short supply, quoted at 25.3–28.1 CNY per kilogram. Imported ultra-high-purity electronic-grade fumed silica still dominates the high-end market at 29–39 CNY per kilogram, alongside steady advancement in domestic substitution of premium products.
Supply side is marked by stark divergence in operating rates, with the overall industrial operating rate hovering between 75% and 80%. Leading silicon material enterprises have signed long-term framework agreements covering new energy, high-end daily chemicals and overseas low-carbon products, running production lines at full capacity around the clock and keeping finished product inventories persistently low. Plagued by insufficient sporadic orders and slim processing profits, small and medium-sized manufacturers voluntarily cut production loads, conduct equipment maintenance and environmental facility upkeep during the off-season, and deliberately avoid unprofitable volume-driven price competition, effectively alleviating the oversupply of low-end products. Persistent high temperatures keep widening the production cost gap between northern and southern regions. Time-honored production clusters in East and South China need non-stop cooling equipment for workshops, accompanied by surging energy consumption for harmless wastewater and waste gas treatment as well as rising operating costs for online environmental monitoring systems, pushing up rigid production costs and drastically limiting room for price declines of low-end goods. Northern production bases benefit from pleasant summer temperatures, spacious factory areas and shortened logistics brought by nearby procurement of quartz sand and sodium silicate, enjoying lower energy consumption for cooling and three-waste disposal and distinct comprehensive cost advantages. Recently, many inland traders have adjusted their procurement preferences, leading to a growing share of northern supplies and a quiet shift in regional supply and demand patterns. Industry insiders acknowledge that structural overcapacity still haunts conventional mineral-based silica. Demand growth for tires matching fuel vehicles remains sluggish, and only the steady tire replacement market serves as the bottom support, unable to trigger a trend upturn for low-end grades. Although homogeneous price competition has cooled down, it has not been fully eliminated.
Booming emerging non-tire application sectors have outperformed the traditional rubber field and become the core driver fueling industrial expansion. A cluster of domestic photovoltaic projects is scheduled for concentrated delivery in the third quarter, with residential distributed photovoltaic systems and large-scale ground-mounted energy storage power stations completed and put into operation in batches. Production and sales of silicone sealants for module encapsulation flourish. Hydrophobic nano fumed silica acts as a vital anti-settling, thickening and UV aging-resistant filler in adhesive formulations. Downstream adhesive enterprises have locked in full-quarter purchasing volumes in advance, resulting in scarce spot inventories and extended mainstream delivery cycles of around two and a half months. Power and energy storage battery enterprises keep upgrading safety coating systems for separators. High-purity ultrafine silica can markedly boost separators’ heat resistance and puncture strength, leading to a year-on-year increase in its application ratio. Production schedules of leading domestic material manufacturers have been postponed to mid-October amid mounting pressure to fulfill orders.
With rising penetration of new energy vehicles, these cars feature heavier curb weight and stronger starting torque, imposing stringent requirements on tire noise reduction and rolling resistance. The dosage of high-dispersion silica in NEV tire formulas is 15%–22% higher than that for fuel vehicle tires, supporting steady release of demand for modified precipitated silica and forming one of the few stable growth points within the tire segment. In addition, niche sectors including fine daily chemicals and pharmaceutical excipients boast resilient demand: thickening and soothing fillers for personal care products, toothpaste abrasives and anti-caking agents for pharmaceutical tablets maintain stable orders all year round, unaffected by seasonal fluctuations. Ultra-high-purity fumed silica serves as the base material for shock-absorbing, heat-buffering and sealing components in wireless earbuds, smartwatches, miniature sensors and other portable wearable devices. The growth rate of these premium niche markets far exceeds that of traditional industrial sectors, continuously expanding the application boundaries of silica.
China’s silica foreign trade sustains robust growth in both volume and value, with increasingly diversified export destinations effectively offsetting market impacts brought by the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Customs import and export data for the first half of the year shows that China exported 769,000 tons of silica from January to June 2026, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. Total export volume reached USD 442 million, rising 21.15% year-on-year alongside climbing average export prices. Imports stood at merely 40,000 tons, down 8.95% year-on-year, reflecting accelerated domestic substitution of high-end products.
Following the full rollout and regular collection of the EU CBAM, silica produced via the traditional quartz sand-sulfuric acid process carries a large carbon footprint, sharply lifting export tariff costs. Small and medium-sized manufacturers incapable of low-carbon renovation and complete carbon emission ledger documentation have gradually withdrawn from the European market. Years of research by domestic leading enterprises on the rice husk ash recycling production process have borne fruit. Replacing mineral quartz sand with agricultural byproduct rice husk ash cuts carbon emissions per ton of finished products by over 60% compared with conventional techniques, and some varieties achieve carbon negativity. Having obtained EU green raw material certification, these products not only evade steep carbon tariffs in overseas markets but also command an 8%–15% green premium, with order growth far surpassing that of ordinary industrial-grade silica.
At present, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa have evolved into core overseas destinations for China’s mid-to-low-end silica. Benefiting from the zero-tariff policy under the RCEP, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and other Southeast Asian nations keep expanding capacity for rubber goods, architectural sealants and daily chemicals, absorbing massive volumes of domestic conventional precipitated silica. Countries across the Middle East vigorously advance urban infrastructure and oil & gas supporting projects, triggering a surge in demand for architectural sealing materials and industrial rubber parts, with H1 import volume jumping over 30% year-on-year. Light industries in Central Asian nations develop steadily, releasing mild demand for basic silica fillers. Multiple industrial leaders have accelerated global capacity layout, building fine processing and packaging bases in Southeast Asia. Domestic factories undertake core technical procedures including raw material purification and surface modification, while overseas bases conduct packaging and delivery to comply with local trade policies, circumvent carbon tariffs and trade barriers, and consolidate international market share.
Low-carbon circular production and customized formula R&D have become the pivotal watershed reshuffling the industry, speeding up the elimination of high-energy-consuming, backward and inefficient capacity. The traditional production route of high-temperature melting for water glass followed by sulfuric acid acidification consumes massive non-renewable mineral resources, generates over 4 tons of carbon emissions per ton of product and discharges large volumes of hard-to-treat high-salinity wastewater. Annual environmental maintenance costs keep rising, squeezing profit margins continuously. Innovative large-scale technologies such as rice husk ash resource utilization and carbon dioxide carbonization have been widely commercialized. Silicon elements are extracted from rice husk ash, waste heat from incineration is recovered for production heating, carbon dioxide replaces sulfuric acid in the acidification step, and byproducts are recycled repeatedly, fundamentally resolving the challenge of high-salinity wastewater treatment.
This model not only consumes agricultural solid waste and eliminates air pollution caused by open-air rice husk burning but also drastically reduces production energy consumption and carbon emissions. The superior purity and dispersibility of finished products fully meet the stringent standards for premium daily chemicals and green tires. Many leading enterprises have built a blockchain-based full-chain carbon tracing system, which records complete carbon emission data covering raw material procurement, production processing and finished product delivery, and have obtained International Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs), granting them remarkable advantages in overseas brand supply chain access and bidding for large-scale engineering projects.In contrast, small workshops suffer from capital shortages, unable to upgrade environmental equipment or establish carbon accounting systems, and lack R&D capabilities for surface modification. They can only compete for scattered small orders at low prices, leading to shrinking living space and continuous concentration of industrial capacity among top enterprises. Institutions predict that the combined market share of the top five enterprises will see a notable increase by the end of the year.
Industrial analysts generally forecast a sustained divergent trend for the market from late August to the fourth quarter. Late August will remain locked in the summer off-season with no drastic price swings expected. Conventional precipitated silica will consolidate within a narrow fluctuation range, while tight supply will persist for high-end fumed silica dedicated to photovoltaics, lithium batteries and electronics with prices remaining firm. Upon entering September, rubber processing, waterproof material and industrial coating industries will usher in the traditional autumn production peak. Coupled with concentrated downstream stocking ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the overall silica market will witness a mild phased upturn.
In the long run, the extensive development model featuring blind capacity expansion and vicious price competition has come to an end. Customized surface modification technologies, closed-loop low-carbon circular production modes and balanced domestic and overseas market layout will serve as the three core factors determining enterprises’ competitiveness. Silica will thoroughly break away from its single positioning as a traditional rubber reinforcing filler and gradually develop into a core inorganic silicon new material widely applied across six major sectors: new energy storage, automobile manufacturing, fine daily chemicals, biomedicine, precision electronics and agricultural & forestry circular materials, advancing continuous transformation and upgrading toward green development, refinement and high-end positioning.
