There is a one-day countdown to stocking up at the end of the month, and the market is secretly bidding for upgrades! From the on-site perspective, with the completion of pre-sale orders from individual factories, the risk of inventory accumulation is gradually emerging. Last week, various factories competed to exchange price for quantity in order to ship, and the DMC transaction price fell to 13500-14000 yuan/ton. Some manufacturers also left more room for negotiation for large orders of more than 10 vehicles.
At the same time, the July meeting is about to be held this week. Prior to the meeting, individual factories actively offered discounts to reduce inventory pressure and provide support for joint price increases in subsequent meetings. This round of 'price for volume' is not only a routine operation for grabbing orders at the end of the month, but also a prelude to building momentum for the July market.
In terms of midstream and downstream, based on the current DMC transaction price falling to 13500 yuan/ton, some large orders can still be negotiated, and some companies have started to stock up urgently. However, under the suppression of weak terminal demand, the operating rate of midstream and downstream has also decreased synchronously, and there is a certain backlog of product inventory. Therefore, they dare not fully release stock and are still waiting for lower prices to enter the market at an appropriate time.
Overall, before the conference, multiple parties were caught in a game of bidding for shipments. Considering that July is still a traditional off-season, the industry lacks sufficient confidence in upstream emissions reduction and price stability; However, after continuous observation, the inventory of most middle and downstream raw materials has dropped to a low level. If some large orders are negotiated and sold, individual factories may take the opportunity of the meeting to strengthen their emission reduction efforts again, and there is a possibility of bottoming out and rebounding after the meeting. The key to the future direction lies in whether the actual production reduction in the upstream and further price drops can effectively trigger downstream centralized replenishment.
107 rubber market: Last week, the 107 rubber market showed a weak operating pattern with actual orders falling and the center of gravity shifting downwards. As of June 26th, the mainstream price of 107 glue in China was 14800 yuan/ton, but actual transactions fell below 14000 yuan/ton, and the bearish range continued to expand.
Supply side: DMC prices have experienced a phase of breaking through and falling, and the cost support of 107 glue has loosened. Some individual factories face significant pressure to reduce inventory, and the speed of following up on new orders is slower than the speed of accumulating goods. In order to revitalize transactions and lock in core customers, they continue to implement a price for volume strategy for downstream large customers, causing the market to shift from strong and weak differentiation to overall weakness. The supply side quotation still maintains a high upward trend, but the actual transaction has shifted to volume based negotiation and single item negotiation, with obvious characteristics of both upward and downward trends. However, the 40% production reduction policy in the industry is still being implemented, and the bottom support has not completely collapsed, resulting in an overall weak downward adjustment cycle.
Silicone adhesive demand side: This week, silicone adhesive companies continued their low inventory operation mode. After multiple rounds of rigid demand consumption, the industry's raw material inventory generally decreased, but there was also insufficient stock reserve. According to the latest monitoring data from the Zhongzhi Research Institute in June 2026, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in 20 cities increased by 10.9% year-on-year in the first half of June. The transaction volume of second-hand houses and new houses in first tier and strong second tier cities continued to recover, but the seasonal off-season of high temperature and heavy rain in summer intensified its impact. Downstream enterprises hold a cautious and bearish attitude towards the short-term market, maintaining their procurement strategy of small orders for essential needs. Influenced by the continuous price reduction of upstream raw materials, they are generally observing and waiting for lower purchasing points.
Photovoltaic adhesive market: The pricing differentiation in the module market is obvious, with top companies adhering to a pricing strategy and small and medium-sized module factories continuously offering discounts to boost monthly sales. The inventory of terminal components has slightly increased month on month, and channel inventory has slowly accumulated, directly suppressing the purchasing demand of component enterprises for upstream raw materials such as photovoltaic adhesive. Short term photovoltaic adhesive enterprises currently rely solely on existing orders to purchase 107 adhesive, making it difficult to form effective demand support for the 107 adhesive market.
Overall, the 107 rubber market is still experiencing a weak and volatile trend in the short term, and the bearish range is expected to further expand. Transactions will gradually concentrate on large production capacity holders, providing a basis for accumulating trading chips and boosting prices for the industry conference on July 2nd.