Entering Wednesday, the organic silicon market continues its weak supply-demand balance pattern. At present, due to the average situation of accepting orders with discounts, individual factories in North China, Southwest China and other regions plan to increase maintenance efforts this week. It is expected that the overall operating rate will further decrease to around 60% to stabilize market expectations. Despite the continuous expansion of profit margins in actual transactions, the upcoming meeting of actual controllers in July will further clarify production reduction arrangements and collaborative price stabilization measures, and the overall willingness to stabilize prices remains strong.
However, the terminal consumer market is still in the traditional off-season, with mid to downstream enterprises slow to reduce inventory and generally low purchasing enthusiasm. Although there is a regular replenishment window at the end of the month, demand release is mainly driven by rigid demand, making it difficult to form a strong driving force and limiting price support.
In the short term, it is expected that upstream and downstream enterprises will continue to observe and digest the situation before the conference, and transactions will slightly loosen. If the July meeting releases a strong price signal, downstream markets are expected to concentrate on releasing essential demand. With the combined effect of supply contraction and demand recovery, the market may experience a temporary recovery; On the contrary, if individual factories turn to a sharp decline in shipments under inventory pressure, market confidence will weaken again, and there is a risk of further price decline. Overall, the current supply contraction and weak demand continue to tug at war, with the actual transaction center shifting downwards and the market maintaining a narrow consolidation operation.
Raw rubber market: Currently, most individual factories are actively reducing their load, and the raw rubber equipment is also continuing to shrink. The inventory pressure of enterprises is controllable, and the mainstream quotation is stable at 15500-15800 yuan/ton. But in reality, the follow-up of new orders is average, and under the gradual accumulation of shipping pressure, some raw rubber enterprises have once again increased their "price for quantity". Currently, the transaction price of raw rubber has dropped to 14500-15200 yuan/ton.
In terms of demand, due to the dual impact of insufficient terminal orders and tight cash flow, downstream rubber mixing enterprises are relatively conservative in their procurement, generally maintaining a short-term safety stock of 10-20 days, and overall focusing on essential procurement. Especially this week, the situation of hidden decline in raw rubber has intensified, further deepening the bearish expectations of rubber mixing enterprises. In the short term, they tend to wait and see to lower prices and purchase at low prices, lacking the willingness to concentrate on stocking up.
In the short term, cost stabilization and supply contraction still have a certain bottoming effect on the price of raw rubber, but the demand side remains sluggish and there is insufficient motivation to replenish inventory, making it difficult to support the market recovery. It is expected that the raw rubber market will maintain a weak and stable operation at the end of the month, presenting an overall pattern of "clear stability and hidden decline".