Yesterday, the raw metal silicon 421# quotation was temporarily stable at 23300-25300 yuan / ton, while the DMC market continued to decline. Taking a monomer in Shandong as an example, from 30100 yuan / ton on December 1 to 23500 yuan / ton on December 13, it has fallen for seven times this month, with a decline of 6600 yuan / ton. Other mainstream monomer factories did not quote yesterday. At present, the wide quotation in the DMC market is 23500-25000 yuan / ton. According to market rumors, the transaction price of partial DMC is lower than 23000 yuan / ton.


From the supply side, the weak market of raw metal silicon has reduced the support for monomer factories, and some monomer factories have repeatedly reduced the quotation, which has also continuously reduced the psychological expected price of middle and downstream manufacturers, and the goods preparation has stagnated, resulting in the new order trading volume of DMC is far lower than the production volume, the inventory digestion of most monomer factories is not smooth, and the phenomenon of dark falling bidding continues.


From the demand side, the DMC low bidding of monomer plants continues, aggravating the bearish mood in the middle and downstream markets. Recently, local epidemics have occurred in three places in Zhejiang, and the silicone industry is also a concentrated area in Zhejiang, which has a certain impact on the logistics of local silicone enterprises, virtually increasing the bearish space in the downstream. However, with the continuous decline of DMC, it is getting closer and closer to the downstream expected bottom price, and the heart of waiting for the opportunity to copy the bottom is ready to move. If it falls further this week, it does not rule out the admission of enterprises to copy the bottom.


Generally speaking, the momentum of replenishment in the middle and lower reaches has not been released yet. According to past experience, there will be a traditional peak season after the year, so there will be a small wave of goods preparation by the middle and lower reaches manufacturers before the year, but the first quarter of 2022 is the release period of new capacity. Under the background of oversupply, the duration of rebound energy after the fall is also full of uncertainty, Therefore, most people in the industry just think that the current price is reasonable and there is little room for appreciation. There are still some risks in hoarding goods rashly.






In the short term, the price is close to the cost line. If it continues to decline, those who plan to copy the bottom will start to follow up, because not everyone can get the real bottom price. Xiaobian expects that after another wave of collective decline, the price is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and even rebound and pull up again.